2023 MLB Mock Draft
The 2023 MLB Draft is almost here. How will the dominos fall? We won’t know until it happens, but we can make some *somewhat* educated guesses
Welcome to the second annual Ethan Ignatovsky MLB mock draft. Just like last year I, Ethan Ignatovsky, will try to predict the first round of the MLB draft.
Whether you read everything, or just skim the selection, thank you in advance, and let’s enjoy the fun and excitement of the MLB draft.
The draft is very hard to predict, especially for someone without insider knowledge. Like last year I used my own eyes, but I mostly used the Athletic (Keith Law), MLB.com (Jim Callis and Jonathan Mayo), ESPN (Kiley McDaniel), as well as Prospects Live and Future Stars Series (Joe Doyle), to get as much information as possible in the months leading up to the draft (For the most recent scouting information, I used these Law, McDaniel, Prospect Live, Doyle, and MLB.com’s rankings, as well as what I’ve observed). I feel like I’m fairly knowledgeable on the subject, and I plugged myself into the draft prospect scene, even more, this year. I started my research much earlier, watched interviews with players, and even saw Day 2 of the MLB Draft Combine, which was cool, but didn’t feature a lot of first-round talent. Now I’m as ready as I’ll ever be, so let’s talk draft.
The draft is in its second year of being a part of All-Star weekend, and the first round of the draft will take place on July, 9, at 7:00 PM EST, 4:00 PDT at Lumen Field in Seattle, Washington.
If you’re not familiar with the rules of the draft, only players from Canada, the United States, or US territories are eligible to be drafted (prospects not from these regions join MLB organizations during international signing periods). To be drafted, you need to fit into one of the following categories: a player who graduated high school but has not yet attended college, a player who has completed at least one year of junior college, a college player who has turned 21, or a college player who has completed their junior year. MLB draft prospects lose draft eligibility between the start of their freshman year and the completion of their junior year or 21st birthday, whichever comes first.
Every team receives a pool of money that they are allowed to use to sign their drafted players to professional contracts. The more picks a team has and the higher the picks are, the more money the team receives to sign their drafted player. Teams need to use the pool money wisely to make sure they don’t go over the limit and receive a penalty. You might hear the term “under-slot” said on draft night, basically it’s a strategy teams use where they take a player they believe they can get to sign for less money so they can use more money on later picks. Also, teams almost always pick the player they view as “best available”, and don’t draft by positional needs. Some teams might have a preference toward pitchers or hitters, or, college or high school, but if for example, the player a team views as best available is a catcher and they have an All-Star catcher and top 100 prospect catcher, they very likely will take the catcher.
This draft class is pretty deep and also features five players that could all go number one most years: Dylan Crews, Paul Skenes, Wyatt Langford, Max Clark, and Walker Jenkins. In this class, there are arms that light up the radar gun, big power bats, speedsters, a two-way player, and more.
the 2023 first round features 28 picks instead of 30, this is because the New York Mets and Los Angeles Dodgers both received a 10 spot penalty for going over the competitive balance tax threshold by over $40 million. The two teams’ first picks will be 32nd and 36th overall respectively. Here’s how I think things will play out over the first round:
1. Pittsburgh Pirates: Paul Skenes, RHSP, Louisiana State University
For the longest time, Skenes LSU teammate, Dylan Crews, seemed destined to be picked by the Pirates at number one. Recently though, Crews has become more and more unlikely due to his perceived bonus demand of around $10 Million per Kiley McDaniel. In my opinion, Crews is bluffing and would sign with the Pirates if picked here, and it would be for less than $10 million, but would the Pirates really want to risk it? Skenes should be cheaper than Crews which allows them to use more money on high-upside picks later in the draft, a strategy the Pirates are known to like. Also, it’s not like Skenes is a scrub, in most other years Skenes would be the obvious first pick. He’s been called the best pitching prospect since Stephan Strasburg, he throws his fastball harder than Hunter Greene did, he has a plus-plus slider, and he struck out over 50% of the batters he faced in the SEC. Skenes has a changeup as well that doesn’t use much, but in pro ball I expect he’ll improve the pitch and throw it more. He’s shown his ability to rapidly improve as seen by the changes he made after transferring to LSU from the Air Force Academy. Skenes is really all you can ask for in a pitcher. He could realistically be a big leaguer by the time 2024 is over, and some think he could help a big league bullpen today.
If the Pirates call Crews’ bluff, I wouldn’t be surprised, no matter how good Skenes is it’s hard to pass on a position player like Crews. Crews has superstar potential but also a very high ceiling. If the Pirates really want a hitter, but don’t want to take the signing risk with Crews they could either stick with a college bat in Wyatt Langford or go with prep outfielders like Max Clark or Walker Jenkins.
2. Washington Nationals: Dylan Crews, OF, LSU
The 2023 Golden Spikes winner, Dylan Crews is in my opinion, the best player in the draft. Crews makes good contact and hits for a high average, his exit velocities are elite and he shows plus power. He doesn’t just swing though, he gets on base at an extremely high rate thanks to his elite walk rate, his 71 walks tied for the Division I lead. He controls the strike zone well and rarely strikes out. It’s been said by Jim Callis that he could be similar to a Freddie Freeman type offensively. Crews also has plus speed and can steal bases from time to time, although that’s not a big part of his game. On defense, he can be a good center fielder, but he might one day move to a corner where he would be a plus defender, especially if he does get drafted by the Nationals who have a lot of outfielders who could play center. Crews is a great prospect who can do a little bit of everything, he has a high floor as a good big leaguer, and the potential to be an absolute star of the game.
If Crews gets taken first overall, Skenes will go here. Either way, an LSU Tiger will become a Washington National on July 9, I would almost guarantee it.
3. Detroit Tigers: Wyatt Langford, OF, University of Flordia
Unless Langford himself, or Max Clark, goes number one I can’t see anyone but him going here to the Detroit Tigers. Everyone expects the Tigers to take a college bat and although they also like Kyle Teel and Jacob Gonzalez, Langford is a part of the elite top five and he could be the number one overall pick most years. Like Crews, he is an amazing hitter but they’re not exactly the same. Langford still hits for a good average and gets on base, walking more than he strikes out, but it’s not at the same level as Crews. However, he has the exit velocities to match Crews, and he slugs more than him. He is also extremely fast and could maybe even be a 30-30 guy in the big leagues, but he didn’t run as well after returning from an injury midseason. On defense, he isn’t anything special and his arm isn’t the strongest meaning he’s probably just a left fielder, but his bat is the real prize.
I wouldn’t hate it if Langford was taken first overall, and I think the Tigers are getting a really, really good player who I even liked more than Crews at some points. The differentiators are that Crews plays a better outfield and has a longer track record since he was a starter all three years, compared to just two.
4. Texas Rangers: Max Clark, OF, Franklin Community High School (Franklin, IN.)
Max Clark or Walker Jenkins. Walker, Texas Ranger? What about Clark, Texas Ranger? Because that’s who I’m going with here. It seemed for a while that it was a toss-up between these two high schoolers, but according to Keith Law and Kiley McDaniel’s latests, it seems Clark has the edge. Even without the new information, I would have still gone with Clark here as I rate him just over Jenkins. Clark might be the most well rounded player in this elite group, he has an above average bat (he hit over .600 in high school), continues to add power, and should have plenty of it at the big league level. He has a great approach and drives the ball all over the field. He’s very quick, and has the glove and arm necessary to be a good, if not really good center fielder. I would also say Clark is the hungriest player in the draft, you can just see it in the way he carries himself, he wants to be great and he knows he can be.
5. Minnesota Twins: Kyle Teel, C, University of Virginia
I have the Twins deviating off course here and selecting Kyle Teel over the last of the elite five, Walker Jenkins. The reason for this is because the Twins have been linked to a college bat the entire pre-draft process. Jacob Gonzalez looks to be the bat they like the most. Kieth Law and Kiley McDaniel both have the Twins strongly tied to Gonzalez, and Law says he is the top player in their model, so off of current knowledge, it really does seem like he’ll be the pick here. However, I think the obvious choice if you’re going college bat here has to be Teel. I understand Gonzalez is tied strongly to the Twins, but multiple players are often tied to the same team and I think Teel might be the type of player that can pull the Twins away from their traditional model. Teel is a line drive hitter with a fast bat who hit over .400 last year. He has great pitch recognition and an advanced approach, walking more than he struck out. He could add power as he progresses, but McDaniel wonders if he might need to shorten his swing in the pros to continue being such a good hitter. On defense, he uses his athleticism to his advantage, he receives well, gets out of the crouch quickly, and has a very strong arm. He needs to work on his framing and how he handles low strikes, but he is very likely to stay at catcher and these things should improve as he gains experience. Teel’s also impressed with his intangibles, and Law compares his ceiling to Jason Kendall type of catcher. In his prime, Kendall was an All-Star.
Gonzalez could still very well be the pick here and I might look really stupid on draft night, but I strongly feel this is the right move if the Twins want to go the college route, and I believe they’ll realize that.
6. Oakland Athletics: Jacob Gonzalez, SS, University of Mississippi
The A’s are up now and I just don’t think the team would want to pay the premium for a player like Walker Jenkins, who in my mock slid down to them. Therefore, I have them going the college route with Jacob Gonzalez. Gonzalez has great hand-eye coordination and bat-to-ball skills, with decent power potential. His stance is a little unorthodox with his back leg setup, and in his swing, his body parts seem to become disconnected, he’s made it work in the SEC though and it could continue to work in the pros. He’s a below-average runner and might have to move to third base or second base in pro ball, but sticking at short isn’t out of the question.
Really your guess is as good as mine when it comes to the A’s pick, but Gonzalez, Brayden Taylor, and Jacob Wilson all make sense to me.
7. Cincinnati Reds: Walker Jenkins, OF, South Brunswick High School (Southport, NC.)
This is where Jenkins's small slide will end. The Reds don’t seem like a team that would pass on this opportunity, and Mayo, McDaniel, and Law all agree that if Jenkins is available here, he’ll be taken. They’d need to go under-slot at a later pick, but it would be worth it to get a prospect like Jenkins.
Jenkins is a beast with the stick, he hits the ball hard with a quick swing and amazing bat control. Kiley McDaniel calls him the best hit/power high schooler since Bobby Witt Jr. He can drive the ball to all fields with power and could be a 30+ home run a year type of player, especially in Cincinnati. He’s fairly fast, and his route running and reads give him a shot to stick in center field.
8. Kansas City Royals: Blake Mitchell, C, Sinton High School (Sinton, TX.)
Remember how I said teams don’t pick by need, they pick by who they view as the best player available? Well, this might be a time when the Royals allow what they need to influence their draft pick. The Royals have been linked mostly to Kyle Teel and Blake Mitchell, two catchers who, if either was taken here, would become the heir apparent to Salvador Perez. They’re high on Noble Meyer, Wilson, Gonzalez, Arjun Nimmala, Chase Dollander (and if Dollander I would presume Rhett Lowder as well), Taylor, and Enrique Bradfield Jr. as well, but I think one of the catchers seems like the most likely option here, and with Teel gone in this mock that leaves Mitchell. It’s a little uncommon to see high school catchers go this high, but it does make sense here and gives the Royals an under-slot pick so they can spend more money later as well.
Mitchell will undoubtedly be able to stick as a catcher in pro ball, he is an athletic receiver who has a cannon for an arm, as seen by his 97 MPH fastball from off the mound. I’m sure Mitchell will at the very least become a catcher that pitchers want to throw to, but he can be so much more. On the offensive side, he is able to work counts into his favor due to his patience, and when he gets a pitch he can drive he has the ability to do so to all fields. His setup and swing might need to be tweaked at the next level as he’ll be seeing better stuff more often, and when he has seen higher-level stuff in the past it hasn’t always gone his way. Still, he looks like he can be a bat-to-ball type of player that could also easily get you 20 home runs, with good catcher defense, sounds like a top-ten worthy pick to me.
9. Colorado Rockies: Rhett Lowder, RHSP, Wake Forest
Like I said last year, pitchers don’t want to play in Colorado due to the thin air that allows the ball to carry and the big gaps of the Coors Field outfield. That means the Rockies need to build pitching through the draft. They could go for a bat, but I personally don’t see it. I strongly believe they’ll go pitcher here which means Rhett Lowder, Chase Dollander, Noble Meyer, Hurston Waldrep, or maybe even someone like Ty Floyd or Tommy White. In my opinion though, Lowder EASILY makes the most sense. He is almost unanimously seen as the next-best pitcher after Paul Skenes and his stuff would probably be the most likely to work at Coors Field.
Lowder has three pitches, and they’re all good. His fastball has some sink to it and sits low to mid-90s, topping out at 97 MPH. His slider was his most improved pitch this last season and gets good swings-and-misses, especially against righties. His changeup is his best pitch, it’s almost like a splitter with the way it falls apart and is hard on both righties and lefties. Lowder has a high floor as a mid-rotation MLB starter who could be more than that. Keith Law points out some wackiness in his delivery that might be holding him back in the command department. If he makes some adjustments he might be able to gain command and maybe even more velocity. If he makes changes and they work, his ceiling becomes even higher.
10. Miami Marlins: Jacob Wilson, SS, Grand Canyon University
It seems like there’s not really a consensus on what the Marlins want to do here, but it seems like it will probably be a bat. Brayden Taylor, Matt Shaw, Tommy Troy, or maybe even a high schooler like local(ish) boy Arjun Nimmala. Sammy Stafura was apparently impressive in his workout with the fish, but I don’t think he’s at all likely here. I would guess it’ll be Jacob Wilson who will be taking his talents to South Beach.
Jacob Wilson, son of MLB shortstop of 12 years Jack Wilson, fits right in with what the Marlins have been prioritizing, high-contact hitters. Wilson hit .412 this year, and even more impressive than that struck out only five times all year. FIVE! Wilson is a pure contact hitter, he doesn’t hit the ball hard or lift it in the air, he just slaps it around the field. It seems players in the same offensive category as Wilson that have been drafted recently struggle, but then you look at the Marlins big league team and see Luis Arraez is having an amazing season hitting almost .400 at the All-Star break. On defense, Wilson will almost definitely be able to play shortstop at the next level, he’s a good defender over there and is an average to slightly above average runner. Wilson might not have the same projectability as players around him, but this seems like a Marlins pick to me, and if he does go here I think they could turn him into a really nice player.
11. Los Angeles Angels: Brayden Taylor, 3B, Texas Christian University
The Angels have been all about drafting college players and getting them to the big leagues quickly, it’s a trend that’s starting to get noticed. A few players that could fit that mold here are Enrique Bradfield Jr, Nolan Schanuel, Matt Shaw, Tommy Troy, and of course, Brayden Taylor. I think if Taylor is available here the Angels would love to take him. I wouldn’t be surprised if any of those guys were picked though.
Taylor had a slow start to the 2023 season but really got it going down the stretch and ended with an OPS over 1.000 and 23 home runs, second in the Big 12. Taylor has a great approach at the plate, he works deep into counts and doesn’t expand the zone until he needs to, leading to more walks than strikeouts for his college career. He’s able to have solid game power due to his launch angle and hard-hit rates. He regularly takes the ball all over the field. He’s sacrificed some hit for pop, but his hit tool should still be pretty good at the next level. Defensively, he’s a third baseman with a worthy arm and good instincts. He’s very solid over there and could become even better due to his athleticism. He’s a little younger than most college guys, but the Angels could probably still get him to the show relatively quickly if they wanted to, and if he’s available here I don’t think he gets further.
12. Arizona Diamondbacks: Chase Dollander, SP, University of Tennessee
It seems as though the Diamondbacks expect to take prep shortstop Colin Houck from Lilburn, Georgia, but it also seems like they don’t expect Chase Dollander to get to this spot. There are rumors that the Diamondbacks are prioritizing pitching this draft, and separate rumors that say they wouldn’t let Dollander get past number 12. Law has even said they “were heavy on Dollander down the stretch”. So although the organization might be high on Colin Houck, and he very well could be the pick on draft night, I’ll go the Dollander route.
Dollander had an amazing sophomore season at Tennessee and looked like he could maybe be viewed similarly to how Skenes is viewed now. Dollander just wasn’t the same his junior year though, and his elite slider wasn’t the same type of pitch. In 2022 he could throw his slider for strikes or get opposing batter to chase it out of the zone. This year it didn’t have the same strong, late action, and therefore became far less effective. His fastball was still pretty good, featuring mid to high-90s velocity and topping out around 99 MPH. His big curveball and fading changeup are also good pitches, but could definitely be improved upon. His slider was really his calling card, If a team can get his slider back he could be the steal of the draft. Whether it was a different grip or something in his delivery, he just wasn’t as sharp as in 2022, a good pitching development team like the Diamondbacks could figure out what’s gone wrong and set him on the right course.
13. Chicago Cubs: Arjun Nimmala, SS, Strawberry Crest High School (Dover, FL.)
Arjun Nimmala is one of the most exciting prospects in this draft class, for starters, he’s only 17 and won’t turn 18 until the offseason, the team that takes him will have an extremely young, potential-filled prospect on their hands, and that’s exciting. Nimmala trains with Francisco Lindor in the offseason, and like Lindor, Nimmala is a shortstop who should stay at the position. He’s got good range and hands to go along with a strong arm. He’s not the fastest, but he’s not slow either. What makes him exciting is his hitting potential. He has a patient yet aggressive approach at the plate, and scouts think Nimmala can develop into a serious power bat. He’s already begun showing good power to all fields and has a sound swing. He’s a little bit risky due to his hit tool not being as advanced as some others, he hits velocity fine, but has some swing and miss, struggling specifically with breaking balls. However, there’s no reason to think that he won’t be able to work on these issues and overcome them, he seems too talented not to, but I’m not saying there’s no risk. Without that risk, he’s easy top ten.
I feel like the Cubs have to go with Nimmala here if he’s available, but they’ve been tied to other high schoolers, college bats, and arms as well.
14. Boston Red Sox: Colin Houck, SS, Parkview High School (Lilburn, GA.)
I know I said Houck could go at 12, but there also seems to be some noise that suggests Houck could fall out of this area of the draft entirely, to me though, it just doesn’t make much sense. I think if Houck is still here at 14 the Red Sox would love to jump on him, and if he isn’t (or they do just decide to pass on him) I think they would still go with a high schooler. Chaim Bloom took over the Red Sox Head of Baseball Operations job in 2019, since then, he’s only picked high schoolers with his first round pick.
Houck was a two-sport athlete at Parkview, he was a three-star quarterback, and on the baseball field is a big shortstop who might have to slide over to third base. That’s not a certainty though, he’s athletic, has range, great body control, and a strong arm that could allow him to stick, and whatever team does draft him will almost certainly give him the opportunity to make it to the majors as a shortstop. Offensively, his strength and swing generate good power, and he often drives balls in the air to left field, although he can use the whole field. He lays off most bad pitches besides high fastballs, but he’ll need to work on that as well as making good contact on inside pitches. Once he gets drafted and can put his full focus on baseball he should probably start improving at a quicker rate.
15. Chicago White Sox: Enrique Bradfield Jr, OF, Vanderbilt University
The White Sox are mostly tied to college hitters, as well as Chase Dollander, which makes me wonder if they would take Waldrep here. They’ve been tied especially to Yohandy Morales and Brayden Taylor, but I think they’ll go with Bradfield. This seems about the time Bradfield could go, and should go, and to me at least, this seems a little bit early for Morales. I wouldn’t be completely surprised if the Angels ended up taking Bradfield and the White Sox taking Taylor, but this is just how it worked out in my draft. Besides the college players, they’re apparently also interested in prep righty Blake Wolters and prep shortstop Walker Martin, but I think those might be targets for later picks.
Bradfield is an absolute speed demon, and no matter who you ask they’ll tell you it’s 80 grade, as high as can be. He stole 37 bases this year, and over his college career has 130 steals in 190 games (he’s only been thrown out 13 times). He’s not a power hitter and never will be, but he knows what he needs to do. He makes contact to all fields and walks a lot, more than he strikes out. His on-base ability makes it possible for him to be a constant force on the basepaths. His swing is unusual and teams might want to tinker with it in pro ball, but if the swing continues to work he could find himself in the majors relatively soon.
Bradfield also uses his speed on defense, he gets to balls fast and reads the ball well off the bat. He’s a no-doubt centerfielder at the next level, but if he’s taken by the White Sox he might have to move to a corner because of Luis Robert Jr.
16. San Francisco Giants: Matt Shaw, SS, University of Maryland
The Giants haven’t gone with a high schooler in the first round since 2017 when they took Heliot Ramos at 19. I feel like that could change this year with new GM Pete Putila working alongside Farhan Zaidi. They really like Walker Martin and seem like they could be in on Thomas White, but they’re probably hoping one of them falls to 52 when the Giants pick again. If you guessed two-way high schooler Bryce Eldridge will go here I would say it makes sense. The Giants are very interested in two-way players, they drafted Reggie Crawford last year and they gave Ronald Guzman a chance in spring training. Still, I think the Giants will go with a more traditional pick like Tommy Troy, Enrique Bradfield Jr, or my pick for them, Matt Shaw.
Shaw is listed as a shortstop, but he just isn’t one. His arm isn’t strong enough for the position, and is much better suited for second base where he could turn into a good defender, as his range and hands aren’t the problem. Regardless of his defense, Shaw can flat out hit, he was second in the Big 10 in home runs this year and was the Cape Cod league MVP last summer. He consistently makes hard contact and has a high barrel% due to his average launch angle of 26 degrees. He drives the ball all over the field and his opposite field power impresses scouts. He walks a lot and strikes out a little, doing more walking to first than back to the dugout with his bat still in his hands this year. He’s also fairly quick and stole 18 bases this past season. Shaw could be a fast riser through the minors with an All-Star upside.
17. Baltimore Orioles: Hurston Waldrep, RHSP, University of Flordia
The Orioles have gone with hitters recently and they could go there again, but there is a link between the team and Hurston Waldrep. Waldrep had a really nice stretch to end the season and he’s been trending upwards. He needs to go at some point and this seems like a good spot, especially with the team having an interest in him. I’m sure the Orioles are in on some high school bats who could be available here, and I really have no reason to say this, but I would assume they like Waldrep more. It also helps that Waldrep fills an organizational need, yes, you’re not supposed to draft by position but a need is a need. If not Waldrep, maybe Schanuel, Morales, Eldridge, or even George Lombard Jr. could go here.
Waldrep will be the second Gator to go in the first round, and he has the potential
to be a very nice MLB starter, or at worst a bullpen arm. His fastball is mid to high-90s and has gotten up to 99 MPH. It’s a decent pitch but he sometimes has trouble controlling it and it’s gotten hit hard at times. His curveball and slider are also decent, but nothing too special. What actually makes Waldrep special is his splitter which is one of the best pitches in the draft. Sitting around 10 MPH below the fastball, it comes in looking like one before it breaks late. It generates a huge amount of misses and it’s a great weapon. He’ll need to work on throwing it more for a strike as pro hitters will be able to recognize his pitches better. Waldrep definitely has things to work on, but it’s easy to see a good MLB starter.
18. Milwaukee Brewers: Tommy Troy, SS, Stanford University
Whoever is the best college hitter available on the board is who it seems the Brewers will take, they could go with a high schooler who falls, but it seems unlikely. With the way this mock has gone, I view Tommy Troy as the most reasonable pick here. If Waldrep falls here it could very well be him though.
Troy has played mostly third base for the Cardinals this year, but he has experience at shortstop, and that’s most likely the position he’ll be drafted as. Neither of those positions are necessarily his future home though, many scouts see him as a second baseman or someone who will get pushed to the outfield. In the batter's box, he rarely strikes out and makes consistent, hard contact. Despite all the hard contact he probably will never be a big home run hitter. Troy likes fastballs and almost always makes contact with them, but on the flip he side he can struggle a little with changeups. Troy is still a very good hitter and has already shown he can improve. He should fit in with the Brewers draft model, and if the previous picks work out this way, this seems like a safe bet.
19. Tampa Bay Rays: Bryce Eldridge, 1B/RHSP, James Madison High School (Vienna, VA.)
Part of me really thinks that the Rays wouldn’t pass on Aidan Miller or a similar high school bat, the other part of me thinks that a high school two way star who is more of a hitter than a pitcher could really entice a team like the Rays. They’ve tried out two-way players before, and they haven’t had a lot of success, but you know they still have to be intrigued. Eldridge, like I said, is more of a hitter which I don’t think the Rays would mind because that organization makes it seem like they could pick up a random mailman and turn him into an elite pitcher. Eldridge has the desire to be a two-way player and the Rays really seem like a good fit, they’re no strangers to wild draft selections.
He’s big power hitter standing 6’7, and has big exit velocities to match his height. His swing is short and fast, and in addition to all the pop he has a good general hit tool. Eldridge on his bat alone is a first-rounder, but of course, he pitches as well.
On the mound, he has a repeatable delivery. He throws a low to mid-90s fastball with run and he can get it up to 97 MPH. In addition to the heater, he has a slider which he commands well and uses as a swing-and-miss pitch, as well as a changeup which could be a really good pitch for him one day if he sticks on the mound.
Right now Eldridge plays first base, but if he drops pitching he could become a prototypical right field power bat with a great assist arm.
20. Toronto Blue Jays: Nolan Schanuel, 1B, Flordia Atlantic University
I went back and forth between Yohandy Morales and Nolan Schanuel for this pick, but any college bat from above that fell or someone we haven’t talked about yet like Chase Davis could be an option here. A high schooler seems somewhat unlikely.
Schanuel might be one of the best bats in the class, he hit .447/.615/.868 with 19 home runs and 71 walks to 14 strikeouts. Absolutely ridiculous numbers. The thing is he did it while in conference USA, not against the same level of pitching as most of the other college guys who could go this high. The numbers though are still very, very impressive. Schanuel should be able to hit for average and power at the next level, he doesn’t figure to be elite at either one but it should make for a good combo. He is a great fastball hitter and showed on the Cape that his plate discipline is real, even if he struggled in other areas. He’s been a first baseman, but he could work in a corner outfield spot too.
21. St. Louis Cardinals: Noble Meyer, RHSP, Jesuit High School (Portland, OR.)
Sometimes players just fall, and even though he’s extremely talented, the way it worked out in my mock was that Noble Meyer was the one to fall. The Cardinals are in prime position to pick up a falling player in the draft, Kieth Law believes the Cardinals would scoop up a player like Nimmala if he fell, so why not someone like Meyer too? Joe Doyle also had Meyer fall in his mock and notes that the Cardinals always seem to snatch up falling, high-upside players.
High school pitchers often fall, there’s a lot of risk in taking them and they work out at lower rates than other player types. All that being said, Meyer looks to be a special player. He has a mid to high-90s fastball, and he’s even hit 101 MPH, it’s a good pitch but there are some questions about its bat-missing potential. His slider is a true strikeout pitch, and arguably the best breaking pitch outside of Skenes. He also features a curveball with lots of RPMs and a changeup that he doesn’t throw very often but is a solid pitch. Scouts like him a lot, but he is from
a demographic that teams are weary of.
22. Seattle Mariners: Yohandy Morales, 3B, University of Miami
The Mariners have pick 22 in the draft, but they also have pick 29 (Promotion Incentive pick for Julio Rodriguez winning the 2022 AL Rookie of the Year) and pick 30 (Competitive Balance Round A pick). This means it’s likely that the Mariners will take a college player they won’t need to spend much money on, and then go high upside with picks 29 and 30, or maybe vice versa. I have the Mariners doing the first option, picking Yohandy Morales.
Yohandy Morales is a power-over-hit type of player who could strike out a lot. He often chases fastballs up and breaking balls below the zone, but he does hit the ball hard. He has the potential to hit 30 home runs, but he’ll need to make sure he makes enough contact to do that and work on driving the ball in the air. He’s made changes to his swing that let him make more contact and allow for the power to shine, but it’s not a finished product. Scouts are split on if he can stick at third or not, with some feeling like he’s destined for first base or left field. Morales is worth the unanswerable questions at this spot and could develop into a feared power bat.
23. Cleveland Guardians: Colt Emerson, SS, John Glenn High School (New Concord, OH.)
Colt Emerson and Brock Wilken are both highly speculated to go here, but I’ve chosen Emerson who apparently has a lot of fans in the Guardians organization.
Emerson is currently a shortstop, and although some think he could stick there it’s very likely that he moves to second or third base in the pros. With the stick, Emerson is definitely a contact-over-power guy who takes the ball to all fields. It’s not like he just slaps the ball though, he can drive it hard into the gaps. Emerson could add more power to his game by tweaking his swing to get his lower half more involved. He might not have a superstar ceiling (not that I want to knock him or anything), but he could likely be a high average, 20ish home run hitter at an infield spot.
24. Atlanta Braves: Aiden Miller, 3B, JW Mitchell High School (Trinity, FL.)
The Braves are one of the teams I’m least sure about, but I do think that if someone like Miller falls into their laps, they would take him.
Miller is a big power bat who could’ve gone much higher than this, and he could be an absolute steal here, but there are some concerns. Firstly, he doesn’t get to the inside pitch nearly as well as he gets to the outside pitch, and he’ll need to make some adjustments to avoid being exploited in pro ball. Secondly, he didn’t look like his old self after returning from a broken hamate bone his senior season. That’s sort of to be expected though, as those injuries can take a while to fully heal. A fully healthy Miller should be a good bat in the minors who needs to make some changes to reach his potential of a powerful, everyday third baseman.
25. San Diego Padres: Chase Davis, OF, University of Arizona
The Padres have been in a stretch of taking high school kids in the first round for a few years now, but I think Chase Davis, who the Padres are high on, has a shot to put an end to that. Davis is a higher upside (something the Padres love) than some of the other college bats, but he’s probably still safer than a high schooler that San Diego could take in this spot. Even though the Padres have thrown all caution to the wind in the past, this year they don’t have another pick until 96, so they probably want someone at least somewhat safe here. If they don’t go Davis it probably will be a high-upside prepster.
Davis is a power-over-hit outfielder who could end up at any one of the three spots and be a good defender. Davis cut down on his strikeouts dramatically this year and was able to get more contact, but there’s still some cold zones and whiffs in his game. When he makes contact he can drive the ball to all fields and has impressive opposite-field power.
26. New York Yankees: Sammy Stafura, SS, Panas High School (Cortlandt Manor, NY.)
Sammy Stafura and the New York Yankees have been one of the strongest connections for some time now, and if the Yankees went with anyone else besides an extreme faller with Stafura on the board I would be a little shocked.
Stafura is a fast runner and excellent defender at shortstop, he’s one of the most likely in the class to stick there due to his speed, range, soft hands, and arm. Offensively some people think he’s limited to being a high average/OBP hitter with not a lot of power, while others think he’s more of a power bat than a contact bat. Either way, he can take the ball all over the field, and whatever type of hitter the Yankees see him as it’s obvious they like the kid. Stafura has also received praise for his work ethic and intangibles, attributes that have had him compared to Derek Jeter.
27. Philadelphia Phillies: Charlee Soto, RHSP, Reborn Christian High School (Kissimmee, FL.)
I didn’t try to overthink this one. The Phillies aren’t afraid of high school pitchers. Charlee Soto is a good high school pitcher who should be taken around this point based on skill. Sounds like a good fit. Based on that, Thomas White wouldn’t surprise me here.
Soto is only 17, but already a big kid standing 6’5, 210 lbs. He has a repeatable delivery on the mound which is of course good, but he still struggles with command from time to time. His fastball gets up to 98 MPH with life and normally is sitting in the mid-90s. His slider has strong, late downward movement, and he can throw the pitch for a strike. His splitter has good deception and fade. His stuff is arguably the best among the prep pitchers, and I think he has a good chance to impress.
28. Houston Astros: Ty Floyd, RHSP, Louisianna State University
Keith Law said in his July 7th mock, "Everyone thinks they’ll take Floyd… knowing GM Dana Brown’s preference for college pitchers with great fastball characteristics". Floyd hasn’t been taken yet in my mock, so I’ll assume the thinking is right and mock him here.
Floyd had a historic College World Series that helped his draft stock immensely. In that fabled game, he struck out 17 Flordia batters in a game one victory. Floyd’s biggest weapon is definitely his fastball which sits mid-90s and tops out at 98 MPH. The pitch spins at a high rate and carries up in the zone. The only problem for Floyd is he doesn’t really have a second weapon. He has a slider, a curveball, and a changeup, but none of them are really that impressive. He’ll need to make at least one of those a viable number two pitch as well as work on not walking as many batters as he currently does. Still, Floyd’s fastball is so devastating that it’s getting him comparisons to Spencer Strider and it might just be too good to pass up.
And with that, my first round mock draft is complete.
There’s a lot of talent that I couldn’t include in my mock, it’ll be interesting to see who rose into the top 28 that I didn’t have, who slid, what did I get right, what did I get wrong? Only a few hours until we get to see how it all goes down.
