MLB Free Agency: Where Will The Top 7 Shortstops Land?
Carlos Correa opting out of his contract with the Twins has got the baseball world wondering where he and the other shortstop free agents will end up
On Wednesday, Carlos Correa told Puerto Rican Newspaper El Nuevo Día of his plan to opt-out of the remaining two years in his three year, $105.3 million contract and enter free agency for the second year in a row.
The two-time all-star will surely be a hot commodity on the open market, and maybe this time he can get the $3XX,XXX contract he wants, but the question is where will it be.
We can’t know where he or any of the other shortstops that could be on the open market this offseason will end up. Even the most obvious scenarios can’t be seen as any more than a possibility since it seems like the most obvious scenarios hardly ever play out when it comes to free agency.
We do know teams’ needs and what teams are looking for, and what players are looking for in teams. We know the connections players have with cities, other players, and team management.
We can use this knowledge to help us predict, and that’s what I’m going to try to do today.
Carlos Correa
Correa is coming off of a very nice season, he lead all qualified shortstops in wRC+, with a wRC+ of 140, 40% higher than the league average. His slashline was .291/.366/.467 with 22 home runs, and although the metrics say he wasn’t as good of a defender this year as last year when he won the Platinum Glove he still finished the season with 4.4 fWAR and 5.4 rWAR.
Correa has said he’s open to a return to the Twins, but made it clear they need to come out and get him. Correa has said “I love this team. I love this organization … But at the same time, I want to make sure that my son and my family are taken care of.” the Twins might be willing to bring out the checkbook for Correa to stay, they have money to spend, but they might be more inclined to go after pitching first, as that’s what really held them back this year. Also, Twins number one and two prospects Brooks Lee and Royce Lewis are shortstops too, that shouldn’t be too much of a big deal as they could move to different positions, but I think combined with the fact that pitching is a big need for the Twins, they might not go after Correa as hard as some other teams do.
The Phillies, Cubs, Dodgers, Giants, and maybe even the Mariners are all teams that I could see being interested in Correa. The Phillies and Dodgers both seem to have their eye on someone else though, the Giants seem more likely to pursue an outfielder (Aaron Judge) although there are reports that they want to sign a specific shortstop, and the Cubs have themselves a nice shortstop in Nico Hoerner so despite rumors I believe they’ll look to improve at different positions, plus the Cubs and Correa were unable to come to an agreement last year despite interest from team.
The team I see signing Carlos Correa is the Baltimore Orioles, Let me explain.
This Orioles team is already much, much different than the 2021 team that had the worst record in the MLB, this 2022 Orioles team received help from some exciting young players and finished the season 83-79 and only 3 games out of a Wild Card spot in the American Leauge.
The team is only getting better too, 2023 should be a full season of Adley Rutschman and Gunnar Henderson. Plus, the Orioles who have one of the best farm systems in baseball have a lot of prospects knocking on the doors of major league playing time like; Grayson Rodriguez, Colton Cowser, and Jordan Westberg.
Correa also has a long relationship with Orioles EVP and GM Mike Elias. Elias worked with the Houston Astros when Correa was drafted, and he was a major part of bringing him to the team.
Elias has said that going into the offseason the team expects to escalate payroll, and the Orioles have a lot of room for escalation, with only $23.6 million estimated to be guaranteed for 2023.
The fit is there too, Henderson can move to third base, and Ramon Urias and Jorge Mateo can split time at second or take on more of a super-utility role.
And for those thinking about it, Camden Yard’s deep left field would’ve only robbed Correa of two home runs this year if he played all his games in Baltimore according to Baseball Savant.
Where will Corea sign: Baltimore Orioles Other Possibilities: Minnesota Twins, Chicago Cubs, San Fransisco Giants, Los Angeles Dodgers.
2. Trea Turner
Trea Turner is entering free agency off the back of two very nice seasons where he accumulated 13.1 fWAR. This season, his 6.3 fWAR was second among shortstops, and 128 wRC+ was fourth best among qualified shortstops and only one point behind Blue Jays shortstop Bo Bichette. Turner also swiped 27 bases in 30 attempts, the seventh most in the MLB, and you have to think that number will go up next year with the new rules to promote more base stealing. And despite not being an amazing defender, the two-time all-star holds his own at short. Going into his age 30 season whoever signs Turner will be getting him during his prime years, but who will get him?
It makes sense for Turner to return to his current team, the Los Angeles Dodgers, they have the money to resign him, and they’re one of, if not the best, teams in the league.
Despite maybe not loving the idea of playing with the Dodgers originally, Turner has said he’s enjoyed his time in LA, but it’s also no secret how much he prefers life on the East Coast.
The Dodgers could shell out a premium to try and keep Turner, who they believed to be their future shortstop so much they let Corey Seager leave for Texas. The Dodgers rivals, the San Francisco Giants are another team very much interested in Turner, and although they have lots of money to spend too it might not matter if there’s another team, an East Coast team, that can also spend money, is in the market for a shortstop, and are a playoff team. There is a team like that, the Philadelphia Phillies
The Phillies are an NL East team, they spend plenty of time in the spring and in the regular season in Turner’s home state of Flordia, allowing him to spend more time there than if he stuck with a West Coast team.
The Phillies are going to need another middle infielder next season as well since second baseman Jean Segura’s team option will most likely be declined. If the Phillies signed Turner current shortstop Bryson Stott could be moved to second, or traded to another team.
The Phillies are also already a contender, making the playoffs this season with an 87-75 record, and at the time of writing advancing to at least the NLCS.
The Phillies do already have a lot of big offensive contracts, and some like Nicholas Castellanos’ haven’t worked out for them. Pitching is also a big need for the team, but money will be coming off the books, so the team could get Turner and get some pitching help on the cheaper side to bring Bryce Harper’s friend and former teammate with the Washington Nationals into the fold. The links are there, and it makes sense for both parties.
I will say though I believe a dark horse team for Turner is the Miami Marlins. The Marlins aren’t contending like the Phillies, but they are only about an hour away from where Turner attended high school in Lake Worth, Flordia, they need improvements at shortstop, they’ve reportedly said they want a contact bat, and they have a lot of money to spend. But there’s the question of if they really will spend, the reason Derek Jeter left the organization seems to be the inability to spend.
For these reasons, I believe the Phillies are the best bet to sign Trea Turner.
Where will Turner sign: Philidelphia Phillies Other possibilities: Los Angeles Dodgers, San Francisco Giants, Miami Marlins, Chicago Cubs
3. Dansby Swanson
Dansby Swanson has saved his breakout season for this one, his contract year. The 28-year-old, former number one overall draft pick, made his first all-star team this year and improved on both offense and defense. Swanson was a good defender before by most metrics, but this year he led all shortstops in Outs Above Average with 22, and although he has been a worse than league average hitter for most of his career he managed to achieve a 116 wRC+ this year with a slashline of .277/.329/.447 and 25 home runs. Overall Swanson’s performance this year was worth 6.3 fWAR tying with Trea Turner for second among shortstops, a very good year heading into free agency.
Swanson and the Atlanta Braves had some contract talks during the season to keep Swanson with the team, but they didn’t amount to anything. Still, it makes the most sense to keep Swanson with the Braves, they have the money to sign him and he might even take a small discount to stay with his hometown team.
Swanson helped the team win the World Series in 2021. The Braves opted to get Matt Olson instead of resigning Freddie Freeman, but Swanson should be cheaper, and you want to keep as many of these guys together as possible. Losing out early in the 2022 playoffs has to make everyone in the Braves organization more hungry too.
The Braves also don’t have an immediate replacement for Swanson. They have Vaughn Grissom who technically is a shortstop, but it hasn’t really been thought that he would stick there. Grissom can move to leftfield or become a superutility player for the Braves. The Braves top shortstop prospect still in the minors is Braden Shewmake who hasn’t really been performing at a level that would instill a lot of confidence in me if I was Braves President of Baseball Operations Alex Anthopoulos.
Swanson back to the Braves just makes the most sense to me, but some teams could pull him away. Swanson could be the shortstop the Cubs set their eye on, or if Trea Turner does indeed leave the Dodgers, or if Carlos Correa leaves the Twins. Maybe an up-and-coming team could snag Swanson away like the Diamondbacks who originally drafted him, but I doubt it.
Swanson and the Braves make sense, and even though I said the most obvious scenarios hardly ever play out, I think this might just be an exception.
Where will Swanson sign: Atlanta Braves Other possibilities: Los Angeles Dodgers, Chicago Cubs, Minnesota Twins, Arizona Diamondbacks
4. Xander Bogaerts
Red Sox shortstop Xander Bogaerts will opt out of his contract with the team this offseason. If he were to stay Bogaerts would make $20 million every year until 2027, but Bogaerts is worth much more than that and he knows it.
Bogaerts, as always, had himself a great offensive year putting up a 134 wRC+, and put up a .292/.356/.458 slashline. Although the power was down this year (only 15 home runs), Bogaerts improved this year.
Bogaerts defense has always been the knock against him, Bogaerts’ 5 Outs Above Average was his first positive OAA since 2017, he also had 4 DRS which is a vast improvement from last year where he recorded -5, and his 4.9 UZR was also a career-high. This defensive improvement made Bogaerts a top 10 defense shortstop in the MLB this year among qualified defenders, and it helped him record the fourth best fWAR this year among shortstops with 6.1.
Bogaerts, who is going into his age 30 season, is probably going to find a new home this offseason. He could return to the Red Sox but the two sides couldn’t agree to a new deal even though Bogaerts made it clear all the way back in October of last year that he planned on opting out. It also seems like the team and Bogaerts aren’t good fits for each other anymore, the Red Sox shockingly have found themselves as the worst team in the AL East, and it might be time for a mini rebuild. The Sox could look to trade players like Rafael Devers and Chris Sale, while building around Alex Verdugo, Trevor Story (who could slide over to short if a different one isn’t picked up), and their young prospect. The Prospects are a big part of being ok with letting Bogaerts go too I think, Marcelo Mayer, their top prospect and number 7 prospect in baseball according to MLB pipeline is a shortstop, and Ceddanne Rafaela, their number three prospect, can play both third and short and is expected to be brought up at some point during 2023.
So if Bogaerts isn’t resigning with the Red Sox, where could he go?
Well, the same teams that are interested in the other shortstops would probably look into Bogaerts too. I think though the team that gets Bogaerts could be a bit of a shock to most, the Seattle Mariners.
The Mariners do have J.P. Crawford, who they signed to a 5 year, $51 million contract going into this season, but Crawford hasn’t had as good of a season as he did last year. If the Mariners sign Bogaerts, he could move over to second base, which has been a bit of a revolving door this year, or be traded to a different team.
Bogaerts wouldn’t be cheap, and all of the sudden the Mariners have a good bit of payroll, but they do have money to sign Bogaerts which could be one of the final pieces that fill up one of the only holes on the Mariners team and push them from just a playoff team to a certified contender.
Where will Bogaerts sign: Seattle Mariners Other possibilities: Los Angeles Dodgers, Chicago Cubs, San Francisco Giants, Boston Red Sox
5. Tim Anderson
Tim Anderson could technically see Free Agency, but he won’t.
Anderson only played 79 games for the White Sox this year in an injury-shortened season, and he didn’t play as good this year as he normally does when he was healthy.
Still, Anderson was a good player, and is a former batting champion. The White Sox can pick up a team option for 2023 for only $12.5 million, and it seems like a no brainer for the front office to do so.
Who will Anderson end up with: Chicago White Sox Other Possibilities: None
6. Elvis Andrus
When Elvis Andrus signed with the White Sox mid-season this year no one really expected much. The 33-year-old was never known for his bat, and his fielding was going downhill, but he had a resurgent 43 games with the White Sox.
Andrus ended up with positive fielding metrics and posted a 116 OPS+ in his White Sox tenure. It’s a short sample size, but some teams might believe that Andrus can sustain that production.
I don’t think Andrus will get a job where he’s expected to play every day, but a team could look for him to play around half a season at around the same level of production.
I also don’t think a veteran player like Andrus will sign right away, he’ll wait out the market as teams pursue higher-value shortstops.
Going by my predictions I could see the Dodgers in need of a player like Andrus. They can have Andrus as the primary shortstop for the beginning of the season until they feel like shortstop prospect Jacob Amaya is ready for the show. Andrus should also want to hunt for a ring at this point in his career.
The Dodgers though could also trade for a shortstop if they prefer, maybe J.P. Crawford if Bogaerts or another shortstop does indeed sign with the Mariners.
If the Dodgers do trade for someone I believe Andrus will resign with the White Sox and play second base for them in 2023 as they don’t really have anyone to play there, and Andrus has had success with the team
I’m not sure which is more likely, which is why I’m going to cheat on this one and have two official predictions.
If neither of those happens though Andrus is probably going to be a bench bat for a team, or competing for a starting job in the spring for a middle of the pack team
Where will Andrus sign: Chicago White Sox or Los Angeles Dodgers Other possibilities: Texas Rangers, Arizona Diamondbacks, Boston Red Sox, Cincinnati Reds, Minnesota Twins
7. Jose Iglesias
Jose Iglesias might be the odd man out in the shortstop class for this off-season. Iglesias had a fine season, he was a pretty good defender, but his 85 wRC+ just isn’t good enough for most teams, which limits where Iglesias could end up.
If the Dodgers can’t find a trade and Elvis Andrus doesn’t sign with them, Iglesias could go there, but besides that he won’t be signing with a contender.
Iglesias could return to the Angels who he played with during the 2021 season, but Luis Rengifo played alright this year, and rookie Livian Soto played great during his short stint this year.
The Red Sox, who he also played with in 2021 as well as from 2011 to 2013, make sense to an extent, but he would be competing with Christian Arroyo for playing time.
If the Twins want to move Royce Lewis to a different spot on the field Iglesias could find himself in Minnesota.
I don’t think he signs with any of these teams though or resigns with the Colorado Rockies as they probably want to play their young shortstop prospect, Ezequiel Tovar.
The team that makes the most sense to me is the Cinncinati Reds. The Reds don’t really have someone who looks like a surefire shot to be their shortstop in 2023, and the players that have a chance are more utility players.
Yes, the Reds are a bottom feeder but it makes sense for both Iglesias and the team to link together. Iglesias can provide the team a decent shortstop for 2023 until one of their impressive middle infield prospects is ready for the majors, and if Iglesias plays well and a contender develops a need for a shortstop, Iglesias could be traded to them.
Another team in a similar spot is the Oakland A’s, but Iglesias would probably receive less playing time for Oakland as they probably want their young major leaguers to receive more reps.
Where will Iglesias sign: Cinncinati Reds Other possibilities: Oakland A’s Los Angeles Angels, Boston Red Sox, Los Angeles Dodgers, Minnesota Twins
Free Agency is an exciting time, and if these predictions came true the MLB would be very different than it is right now. Obviously, not all of these predictions will happen, but they all make sense. We’ll see in February how right I was.
