2023 Formula 1 season predictions
The start of the F1 season is a time of happiness and excitement, but by seasons end only a few can still feel the same way.
The opening round of the 2023 Formula season is underway in Bahrain with the first practice session of the year just wrapping up, which means it’s high time to release my predictions for the upcoming season.
The 2022 season ended up being a runaway for Max Verstappen, but we still saw five different race winners, 21 separate point scorers, wild moments, first-time winners, and crazy transfers.
We don’t know what the season will bring, but we can attempt to predict how the drivers and constructor standings will look after the 23 race schedule is completed, and other events and outcomes we could see this year.
without further ado, let’s get into the predictions
DRIVER STANDINGS
20. YUKI TSUNODA - ALPHA TAURI
I like the young Japanese driver, but things seem to be working against him this year. Firstly, this is a make-or-break year for him, and he knows it, there are young and hungry Red Bull junior drivers waiting in the wings and he admits he needs “a lot of improvement”, and his team boss says what happens next to Tsunoda is “solely on him”. On top of that, his new teammate Nyck De Vries has shown he can jump into cars and perform well. Tsunoda will feel a lot of pressure to beat De Vries, not only because he is a new teammate and will try to assert him as the number 1 driver of the team, but also because his new teammate is already 28, old for an F1 rookie. The Alpha Tauri also just isn’t expected to be that great of a car this year, time will tell, but it doesn’t seem like it will be an easy season for Red Bull’s sister squad.
19. LOGAN SARGEANT - WILLIAMS
Logan Sargeant is entering his debut season with Williams, after being picked up by their junior academy during the 2021 season. Sargeant got enough FIA Super License points to race in f1 after finishing fourth in his debut F2 season last year. The 22-year-old is the first America to race full-time in F1 since Alexander Rossi in 2015. Williams looks to have improved since last year, but they still shouldn't be setting the world on fire so this seems like a good spot for the rookie.
18. NYCK DE VRIES - ALPHA TAURI
The 28-year-old former F2 and Formula E champion from the Netherlands finally gets an F1 seat. If it weren’t for Alex Albon’s appendicitis last year, De Vries could still be on the outside looking in, his supersub performance though enticed the right people though, and he now has the opportunity he’s always dreamed of.
I don’t expect De Vries to have an easy rookie season, but he’s an experienced driver who seems to work well under pressure and will make the right moves for the team.
17. ALEX ALBON - WILLIAMS
Here is the driver De Vries subbed in for, Alex Albon. Albon has come back from being left without a ride by Red Bull in 2021 to becoming a really nice driver for the Williams team last year. I expect Albon to be knocking on the door to points often this season and while I still have him down here in 17th I expect him to once again show just how good of a driver he is.
16. NICO HULKENBERG - HAAS
Nico Hulkenberg is back in Formula 1. After being a constant on the grid from 2012 to 2019, and then being called upon by Racing Point and its rebranded form Aston Martin in 2020 and 2022 for two substitute drives in each of those seasons, the German driver finds himself back on the grid full-time.
Hulkenberg impressed as a sub and showed he can learn a new car quick which should help him in his return to the grid. Hulkenberg is also consistent, but he hasn’t always been able to punch to the level above. Part of that is just circumstances but Hulk’s inability to stand out could be harmful in a car that’s expected to be in the bottom part of the grid.
15. KEVIN MAGNUSSEN - HAAS
I have the Haas drivers back to back with Magnussen having the slight edge over his new teammate. Magnussen understands the car better having been with the team last year, and he knows the team better than Hulkenberg too, which means they know him better than Hulkenberg. The impact of that will of course decrease as the season goes on.
I think Magnussen will have more highs than Hulkenberg, but his aggressive driving style could betray him at times, and cause the drivers to be close like this in the standings.
14. OSCAR PIASTRI - McLAREN
Piastri is a phenomenal driver, but as a rookie who didn’t race last year, in a team that he hasn’t driven for before this season, in a car that isn’t looking good to start the year, Piastri has his work cut out for him.
The McLaren should improve throughout the season and Piastri will surely improve with the car but it also should be a difficult start to his career, which could affect him more throughout the remaining part of the season compared to teammate Lando Norris due to his rookie status causing him to need to learn the ins and outs of F1 in addition to a changing car.
13. ZHOU GUANYU - ALFA ROMEO SAUBER
The results didn’t tell the full story for Zhou Guanyu last year, as the first Chinese driver in the sports history had quite bad luck last year. Zhou showed pace, improved throughout the season, and impressed against his veteran teammate Valtteri Botas. I expect Zhou to really break out this year and for his results to improve as the team approaches the top end of the grid.
12. VALTTERI BOTTAS - ALFA ROMEO SAUBER
And just ahead of his teammate will be Valtteri Bottas. Bottas is an experienced multi-time race winner from his time at Mercedes where he helped to win multiple constructors championships. That experience should help him in his teammate battle and help pull the team up the grid. Bottas is a better qualifier, while Zhou might have a slight edge in racecraft, which should lead to a tight battle, but one that I expect Bottas to win.
11. LANDO NORRIS - McLAREN
Norris has shown that he is one of the best drivers on the grid, and while he will start the season in a car that appears to be quite bad, I think the McLaren will improve greatly throughout the season. Norris finished the season best of the rest last year and while he almost definitely won’t be 7th again, he could come close to being in the top 10 thanks to his experience and speed. However, starting on the back foot will probably hold the Briton to the bottom half of the grid.
10. LANCE STROLL - ASTON MARTIN
Lance Stroll will be starting the season not far removed from surgery on his right wrist which he injured in a biking incident. The injury caused Stroll to miss testing, putting him on the back foot, and racing the early rounds recovering from wrist surgery can’t be easy. Stroll will have a car that appears to be fast enough to potentially rival for P3 and potentially even P2, but starting the season like this combined with the Aston Martin still being unproven and Stroll not exactly being as highly regarded as the drivers listed ahead of him makes it hard to place Stroll higher than this.
9. PIERRE GASLY - ALPINE
The Frenchman made the jump to the French manufacturer Alpine for the 2023 season and will be looking to bounce back to how he appeared to be in 2021 where he set the world on fire.
The Alpine looks to be safely the fifth-best car on the grid and while I expect Gasly to have a good season I believe he will finish behind his teammate.
8. ESTEBAN OCON - ALPINE
Here is that teammate Esteban Ocon, another French driver for the French team. Ocon however, has been with the team since 2020 and will be motivated to prove that Alpine is his team.
Ocon and Gasly should match up well against each other and the experience in the machinery could make the difference between the drivers.
7. FERNANDO ALONSO - ASTON MARTIN
Alonso broke the F1 world when it was announced he was leaving Alpine for Aston Martin, but it seems like he could’ve made the right move as the Aston looks blazing and the team is motivated to contend at the very tip of the grid.
I don’t buy that the green team will be able to strongly fight the big three of Red Bull, Ferrari, and Mercedes week in and week out, but they will be close, and on some weekends Alonso could definitely be higher up than some drivers from those teams and he will surely pick up the pieces when things go wrong for the big three.
It should be exciting to see Alonso this year and I have the two-time champion as the best of the rest.
6. GEORGE RUSSELL - MERCEDES
There’s talk of Mercedes not being where they want to be to start the season, and while there is probably some truth to that it’s also fairly safe to assume that this is part of Mercedes usual downplaying tactics.
I expect the team to finish third for the second straight year, but this time for George Russell to lose the teammate battle.
Russell is an extremely talented driver who won his first race last year, but he’s going up against arguably the most talented driver in F1 history, Lewis Hamilton.
Hamilton did get beat last year but that’s only because, during the first part of the year, his car was running experimental set-ups.
Russell will challenge Hamilton I’m sure, but over the course of the year, you’ve got to give it to the seven-time champion.
5. LEWIS HAMILTON - MERCEDES
Which is why I have Hamilton one position ahead of Russell.
The car probably is indeed not good enough to consistently challenge the Red Bulls and Ferrari’s, but this is easily doable, and one of the easier predictions on this list
4. SERGIO PEREZ - RED BULL
Sergio Perez is a good driver, but he’s just not Max Verstappen and that hurts him a lot. The Red Bull will always be built to suit their champion and Perez needs to do the best he can in a car that he doesn’t always agree with.
The Red Bull looks nearly unbeatable after testing, but I don’t think it’ll be Perez that’s the unbeatable driver, and I have him fourth.
That’s not as much though because I expect Sergio Perez to drown this year, and more so because I expect Carlos Sainz to step up.
3. CARLOS SAINZ - FERRARI
Sainz came ahead of his teammate Charles Leclerc in his first year with the team in 2020, albeit it was a very weird year for the Italian outfit.
This past year Leclerc finished second in the standings, and Sainz was a long way down in fifth, struggling and even getting beat out by George Russell.
Sainz is to good of a driver to struggle to the same extent again in my opinion, which is why I believe he will finish third on the season.
2. CHARLES LECLERC - FERRARI
Leclerc was the closest thing Max Verstappen had to a challenge in 2022, but in the end, it wasn’t much of a challenge at all. The Monegasque driver finished 146 points behind Verstappen.
Leclerc is a lightning fast, talented driver, but once again I believe he will be the runner-up, hopefully, a closer runner-up this year though
While he could still win a championship one day with lots of career ahead of him, I don’t believe that 2023 is that year.
1. MAX VERSTAPPEN - RED BULL
This means Max Verstappen will win his third driver’s championship in the same number of years.
Verstappen looks like the best driver in the world, and he’s in what looks to be a car that will suit him well once again.
It’s a deadly combination.
I think Verstappen could potentially struggle more this year than last, but as of writing this, I don’t see a world where Verstappen loses out this year, or really, any year soon.
CONSTRUCTORS STANDINGS
10. Alpha Tauri
9. Williams
8. Haas
7. McLaren
6. Alfa Romeo Sauber
5. Alpine
4. Aston Martin
3. Mercedes
2. Red Bull
1. Ferrari
While I think Max Verstappen wins the driver’s title once again, I think the Ferraris will be able to steal the constructors championship. I think it’ll be a close race, but with the Ferraris splitting the Red Bulls, I think they can get it done. This could impact Sergio Perez’s future with Red Bull too if can’t stay close enough to Max to make Red Bull double champions.
Bold Predictions
Fernando Alonso wins a race.
The Aston Martin is close enough to the top teams that if a crazy race were to happen, I believe it could be Alonso that would benefit, and pick up his first win in 10 seasons
Pierre Gasly and Esteban Ocon squabble and cost the team valuable points
The two have a history, and Ocon isn’t always the best with teammates. This could cost the team valuable points, and maybe even make the difference between 4th and 5th
Logan Sargeant proves he belongs
Lots of people seem to be writing off Sargeant as something of a nothing driver, but this is the man that nearly won the F3 championship over Oscar Piastri and won races in a Charuz. Sargeant is a good driver and will prove it this year to the worldwide audience
Theo Porchaire wins F2 and gets a Sauber drive for 2024
This would mean getting rid of either Bottas or Zhou which could be an extremely tough decision for the team. Well, unless they plan on having Porchaire sit on the sidelines for a season but we know how that worked out for Alpine with Oscar Piastri
A Sauber snags a podium
maybe it’s at that same theoretical crazy race Alonso wins, but I could see either Zhou or Bottas in a position to grab a podium at a race this year which would give the team their first podium since 2012. Maybe whoever gets the podium will get an edge in the decision of which driver to keep
The Suaber drivers are the closest on the grid
As you can tell, I really don’t think the decision will be easy
Carlos Sainz strongly challenge Charles Leclerc for third
I sort of already talked about this, but going more in-depth, I believe Sainz and Leclerc could be very, very close. Maybe this could even impact the chance of Leclerc beating Max for the title since Sainz won’t want to play the good teammate role being that close. I think that Max will still probably be too far ahead for that to really come into effect, although the teammate fighting could be what gives him a larger lead. It could also be the difference in the Constructors standings though, pushing Ferrari to first, with Perez also having a strong season, just not quite as strong as the two Ferraris.
Alpha Tauri will get sold mid-season
this one is out there, and rumors about the team being sold have been shot down. Yet, sometimes where there’s smoke, there’s fire.
Nearly every car has a chance for points on nearly any given weekend
Even the teams at the bottom of the grid look to have a chance. This grid seems like it could be very close to me,
Lando Norris wins a race
ending with another rather out there one, but Norris is a very talented driver who seems destined to win one day. It would take a big turn of events and some good luck, but it could happen this year.
