2023 MLB Season Predictions
Baseball is back! Let’s predict the 2023 standings, award winners, and give some miscellaneous takes
The 2023 MLB Season opens up on Thursday, March 30, with two games starting at 1:05 Eastern. Those games being the San Francisco Giants taking on the New York Yankees and reigning American League MVP Aaron Judge, whose free agency was a contested affair between these two teams, and the Atlanta Braves taking on the Washington Nationals.
With spring training wrapping up and the season starting soon, now is the perfect time to make some predictions.
In this article, I will be predicting the standings, and awards, and I will have a unique prediction or take for each MLB team.
Hopefully, my predictions are mostly correct and I look like a genius. You never know what can happen in a season though, as shown last year by the Phillies’ improbable World Series run, Aaron Judge breaking the single-season American League home run record, and many more events.
Enough of this talk though, let’s get into it.
A.L EAST
1. New York Yankees
WHY? Last year the Yankees won the division and won 99 games. The team has some holes offensively despite their star outfielder Aaron Judge, but overall the team has improved. They added Carlos Rodon in the offseason which makes their starting rotation that includes Gerrit Cole, Nestor Cortes, and Luis Severino even better, and there should be an added jolt to the team after full seasons from their young players like Oswaldo Cabrera and Oswald Peraza. The team will also have a gold glove center fielder in Harrison Bader, and top prospect Anthony Volpe, will also add a spark to a lineup that included Giancarlo Stanton, Anthony Rizzo, Josh Donaldson, and Gleyber Torres. The bullpen is also a bright spot on this team. Overall they’re a very well constructed squad that will do damage this year.
ONE PREDICTION/TAKE. Speaking of Anthony Volpe and Oswald Peraza, I expect the two middle infield rookies to play so well they force Aaron Boone’s hand and become everyday players. This forces Josh Donaldson or Gleyber Torres out of the lineup, leading to one of those two being traded for a left fielder or another pitcher.
2. Toronto Blue Jays
WHY? Are the Toronto Blue Jays better this season compared to last, or are they just a different team? This is a question many have asked but I do think they’ve gotten better, just not quite enough to surpass the Yankees at top of the division. The Jays lost some pieces but replaced them well. Their rotation looks about as good as it did last year, with two aces like Kevin Gausman and Alek Manoah, Ross Stripling is replaced by Chris Bassitt, and Jose Berrios and Yusei Kikuchi are question marks. There could be other starting pitching options like a returning Hyun Jin Ryu at some point, or super prospect Ricky Tiedemann. That could move a pitcher to the bullpen, but the bullpen should only be around average. This team’s calling card is the lineup which should be very, very good, and more balanced this year than last year due to the additions of experienced veteran lefty Brandon Belt and Daulton Varsho to a lineup that already includes George Springer and amazing young talents like Bo Bichette, Vladimir Guerrero Jr, and Alejandro Kirk. The defense, specifically in the outfield is much-improved thanks to the additions of Varsho and Kevin Keirmier, who should play much more than Jackie Bradly Jr. This team is dangerous, I wouldn’t want to face them, and they could go far in the playoffs, but over 162 they aren’t the better team than the Yankees yet.
ONE PREDICTION/TAKE. Daulton Varsho enters the top 50 player conversation after winning his first career gold glove and hitting 35 home runs and stealing 25 bases. Last year with the Diamondbacks, Varsho hit 27 home runs in 151 games playing in less hitter friendly ballparks and also stole 16 bases without the new rules that are friendly to base stealers. Varsho also posted an 18.8 UZR, 19 DRS, had 8 outfield assists, and had 17 outs above average in 920.1 outfield innings last year which put him in the 99th percentile for OAA, and he also had an outfield jump in the 97th percentile. You would of course like Varsho to get on base more, but if he can play defense like we know he can and put up 35 homers and 25 stolen bases, that’s an elite skillset.
3. Tampa Bay Rays
WHY? The Rays always work their magic, but part of that is it’s hard to be super high on them in the preseason, but if you’re not you end up looking like a clown. You expect their rotation led by Shane McClanahan and hopefully Tyler Glasnow to be elite, as well as their bullpen, but you just wonder if they’ll hit enough. Last year they didn’t, but they also had really bad luck with injuries. They still have Yandy Diaz, Wander Franco, Randy Arozarena, and Brandon Lowe, who can all do lots of damage and they’ve turned Harold Ramirez and Isaac Paredes into good hitters as well. It was a little hard for me to decide where to put this team, and second, third, and fourth all make sense to me. They could be fighting with the Jays, or fighting more with the Orioles who could have some magic vibes again. I’m not sure, but a healthier squad should be able to keep third and probably be a little closer to the Jays than the Orioles.
ONE PREDICTION/TAKE. Wander Franco has played well when healthy, but health has been an issue. I think this is the year Franco stays healthy, he’s due for it, and he should be a more developed player this year, meaning he is due for a breakout as well. As I said he’s already good, he put up a 116 wRC+ last year, but this year I think he takes a big step forward. I think Franco can his power potential this year and hit 20 big flies and raise his wRC+ to around 130 and enter himself into the conversation for great shortstops currently in the game with a season WAR of at least five. Franco’s max exit velocities are very impressive and if he can hit the ball that hard more often this type of season will be more likely. I think Wander can also improve in talking walks, playing defense, and should get around 25 steals at least.
4. Baltimore Orioles
WHY? The Baltimore Orioles were last year’s underdog overachievers that the whole baseball community rallies behind. We all knew that the Orioles would be good one year soon, but I don’t think anyone expected them to jump above .500 and finish 83-79, but it happened. The team captured magic in part thanks to top prospect catcher Adley Rutschman, and the squad surprised people. I don’t think last year was a straight fluke year, maybe just a bit of an overachievement, so I also don’t think they’ll improve too much this year before maybe taking that jump in 2024. There will be new faces this year in top prospect Gunnar Henderson and top pitching prospect Grayson Rodriguez as well as another prospect in outfielder Kyle Stowers that’ll make positive impacts, but a lack of moves this offseason limits the ceiling of the team as their rotation and bullpen have lots of limiting factors that hold back a lineup with bright spots like Cedric Mullins and Anthony Santander. If the lineup is clicking though, the front office won’t need to try too hard to justify trading some prospects for pitching help midway through the season. This team will probably finish with a similar record to last year’s team, probably just a little better. Orioles fans should be happy though since they’re well ahead of schedule.
ONE PREDICTION/TAKE. Adley Rutschman’s impact on the 2022 Orioles can’t be understated. He walked in the 98th percentile and was nearly in the top 30% of the league in not striking out which helped contribute to a slash line of .254/.362/.445, mind you, he did this as a rookie. His wRC+ was 133, simply put, he was 33% better of a hitter than the average hitter, as a rookie. He didn’t just hit though, his DRS was second highest amongst all catchers at 18 in only 762 innings, his framing was also in the 84th percentile, and he also guided the pitching staff like a veteran, with the team posting a better ERA when he caught then compared to when Robinson Chirinos caught. If Adley Rutschman played the whole year he could’ve won rookie of the year. That’s in the past though, in 2023 I think Adley Rutschman can finish in the top seven in AL MVP voting. I’m sure there will be moments of struggle for the young catcher, but overall throughout the year, I think Rutschman will continue to prove why he is so highly regarded and show us just how valuable he can be. At the end of his career, Rutschman’s prime could be talked about like Buster Posey’s, and that could really start this season with a top seven finish in the MVP voting.
5. Boston Red Sox
WHY? The Red Sox aren’t where they want to be. In 2021 they finished 92-70, but last year they slid all the way down to 78-84, and I think it’ll be more of the same this year. The team lost main pieces Xander Bogaerts, Nathan Eovaldi, and JD Martinez in free agency, as well as other arms like Rich Hill, Michael Wacha, Matt Barnes, Jake Diekman, and Matt Straham. Trevor Story could play this season, but he could also miss the whole year after elbow surgery. It’s not all bad though, Chris Sale and Rafael Devers are still around, and so is Alex Verdugo. The team also brought in Kenley Jansen, Justin Turner, and Masataka Yoshida who put on a show in the World Baseball Classic for Samurai Japan. Prospect Tristan Casas will also be a big part of this team. Despite their additions, the subtractions are too big for me, I’m a big believer in Yoshida, and if Chris Sale is healthy all year then maybe they can approach .500, maybe even surpass it, but I would be surprised by that and extremely surprised if they aren’t anything other than last in their division, their lineup, rotation, and bullpen, all have numerous spots taken by players that will hold them back in my opinion.
ONE PREDICTION/TAKE. It’s hard to find positives with this team but after calling them a fifth place team I wanted this spot to be positive. I’m saying Chris Sale will make the all-star game and finish top 10 in the Cy Young voting, solidifying him as back. Since the start of his Red Sox tenure, he’s missed time with Tommy John and a few other injuries, but when he’s pitched he’s almost always looked good, even after Tommy John, so there’s not much to be concerned about there. It’s about time Sale gets lucky with the injury bug so I’m predicting it happens.
Now I do have another good prediction for Red Sox fans, but I don’t want to spoil my official award predictions.
A.L CENTRAL
1. Cleveland Guardians
WHY? The Guardians surprised some people by winning the Central last year, they were helped by some of their division rivals having seasons seen as disappointing, but when you look at it, it makes sense why this team wins. Pitching and defense, they say it wins championships and they might’ve not won it all, but the Guardians adhere to this formula and it works for them. The 2023 Guardians have a very similar pitching staff to last year’s team which ranked sixth overall in ERA, and is highlighted by starters Shane Bieber and Tristan McKenzie, and relievers James Karinchak and Emmanuel Clase. The Guardians were also top five in defense according to FanGraphs. Defense, especially now second base defense, will be very important in 2023 due to the shift restriction rules. Guardians second baseman Andres Gimenez is one of the best defenders of his position in the MLB. Their offense wasn’t as good as other division winners last year, but bringing in Josh Bell and Mike Zunino will help Jose Ramirez, Steven Kwan, and the rest of the Guardians offense. Things are looking good in Cleveland and could get better with some top prospects that will soon be knocking on the door for regular big league playing time, and with Tristan McKenzie injured to start the season, this is a good opportunity for a pitching prospect to make me look smart.
ONE PREDICTION/TAKE. Speaking of those prospects…. The Guardians have 7 prospects in MLB.com’s top 100 rankings, and six of them have ETA’s of 2023. Of those six I think three, possibly four, can have a really big impact on this team and help them in the search for a championship, with those players being, Gavin Williams, George Valara, Bo Naylor, and Tanner Bibee. Williams and Bibee are both right handed starters who made it to AA last year and could impact the big league club whether it be by replacing an injured pitcher, replacing a disappointing starter, or helping out in the bullpen. Williams is the higher ranked of the two and a year younger at 23, but Bibee performed a little better. There’s definitely a world where both make a big impact on the big league team but it might be a little more likely if it’s one or the other. Naylor is a catcher who could either form a platoon with Zunino or if he plays well enough just take the job, Naylor hit well in AA and AAA last year and is good behind the dish. Valara is a lefty outfielder who could provide pop for a team that was only 21st in slugging percentage last year. Once these kids get called up I think they can take this Guardians team to the next level.
2. Minnesota Twins
WHY? The Twins finished third in the division last year, but I have them leapfrogging the White Sox this year as I’m not very high on the White Sox’s team and I think the Twins have improved their roster and their vibes heading into 2023. The team managed to bring back Carlos Correa after a wild offseason where he agreed to terms with the Giants and Mets before ending up back in the twin cities. Pablo Lopez was also brought in via trade for Luis Arraez, and Joey Gallo, who should provide pop and outfield defense, Christian Vazquez, who should work great with the pitching staff, and Michael A. Taylor, who provides outfield defense, all join the team. The team’s vibes just seem right, and if they can get the best out of their players and keep Byron Buxton healthy the twins can take a step in the right direction towards a playoff spot. With Tristan McKenzie injured to start the year maybe the Twins even take advantage and use momentum to win the whole division.
ONE PREDICTION/TAKE. I couldn't decide so I’m breaking my rules and giving two predictions/takes.
The first one is Carlos Correa posts the highest WAR of his career in response to a wild offseason. Correa would need to hit like he did last year, if not a little better, and also play gold glove defense like he’s shown he can in 2021. Only time will tell if Correa’s ankle will completely change his as a player a few years down the road, but for now, I think he can take it a little personally and prove that for now, he’s still great and isn’t planning on slowing down
My second one is Joey Gallo bounces back to the type of player he was in Texas. Gallo told Ken Rosenthal ofThe Athletic that Minnesota is just more his vibe. It was obvious that Gallo wasn’t comfortable in New York and Los Angeles, he’s more of a small market guy who can play the game outside of the national spotlight and that’s ok. I think not seeing a shift will also help ease his mind. Sure, some teams will bring their left fielder over to play in shallow right, but I don’t think that will happen often. I think a more relaxed Gallo who has just been focusing on adjusting for the upcoming season can bounce back. He won’t be hitting for a high average (or even a mediocre one) but he never did, all he needs to do is walk and use his natural power to hit bombs
3. Chicago White Sox
WHY? The White Sox had a disappointing 2022 where they finished 81-81, and after a disappointing offseason, I’m not even sure they get back to that. This offseason they lost franchise cornerstone Jose Abreu in free agency to the Houston Astros, and their only real adds this offseason were Andrew Benintendi and Mike Clevinger. Benny biceps is a good player and joins guys like Tim Anderson, Luis Robert, and Eloy Jimenez to form a good top half of the lineup. The rest of the lineup though is full of question marks, and so is their pitching rotation with Lucas Giloito, Lance Lynn, and Clevinger all coming off years they wouldn’t like to repeat. Dylan Cease is coming off the best year of his career and could continue to be a bright spot though. Their bullpen took a hit when it was announced Liam Hendricks had non-Hodgkins lymphoma (wishing Liam all the best. Go kick cancer’s ass). The Sox also have a first year manager in Pedro Grifol, and while he can’t be worse than Tony LaRussa, it’s hard to know how he will be in his first year. The aforementioned question bats of Yoan Moncada, Yasmani Grandal, Elvis Andrus, and rookie Oscar Colas who will most likely be the opening day right fielder, as well as the questionable defense and injury concerns of the team means it’s hard for me to have them higher than the Twins. Some moves could change how I view this team, but as they are now, I have them here.
ONE PREDICTION/TAKE. Elvis Andrus was a nice story for the Sox last year as he found himself after beginning to play in the South Side of Chicago midway through last season. I’m just not sure how long Andrus can keep it up though and I think he’ll be replaced midseason as the everyday second baseman by the organization’s eighth best prospect according to MLB.com, Lenyn Sosa. Sosa made his debut already last year and didn’t do much in 11 games. In 119 games across AA and AAA last year though, Sosa had an OPS of .880 and hit 23 home runs. Sosa can be a reliable second baseman who can hit for average power and average, but his aggressive approach could limit him from reaching his full potential. Even if he stays overly aggressive at the plate he could be an exciting addition to the Sox this year.
4. Kansas City Royals
WHY? The Royals finished last in the division at 65-97, one game behind the Tigers last year, as they traded away their best player Andrew Benintendi at the trade deadline. They didn’t improve much through free agency, with Aroldis Chapman really being the only exciting piece. They do improve though through their younger players having more playing time and experience under their belts, as well as hopefully successfully improving on some things during the offseason. That’s players like Michael Massey, MJ Melendez, and former number 1 prospect in all of baseball Bobby Witt Jr, who for all his talent needs to seriously improve his walk rate, but all these guys can improve in multiple area’s, but we need to give them time too since they are young and the Royals aren’t exactly in a rush. We should remember the team will also be getting a full season out of now second year player Vinnie Pasquantino. You also expect Salvador Perez to have a slightly better year with the bat than he did last year. On the pitching side, you hope Josh Staumont can bounce back, Brady Signer builds on his breakout, and Zack Greinke can have a nice season while sharing knowledge. Defense is good in some spots and shaky in others for this team, there’s certainly room for improvement for guys like Bobby Witt Jr and MJ Melendez. The Royals’ main goal should just be to get the young players more experience, and while they won’t be great, they probably won’t completely suck either.
ONE PREDICTION/TAKE. The Italian Nightmare, the Pasquatch, Vinnie P, Vinnie Pasquantino will be entering his first full season after impressing in 72 games in 2022, posting a .295/.383/.450 slash with 10 home runs, and had a very good 137 wRC+. Pasquantino mashes, and I expect him to hit at least 20 more home runs this year, and join the 30 home run club. He was on pace to his around 20-25 over 162 and I think he can improve on that this upcoming year. He ranked in the 87th percentile in max exit velocity last year, and if he qualified for hard hit rate he would’ve been ninth overall in the MLB. All Pasquantino needs to do is make contact often and keep his launch angle in a good spot and I think 30 could be easy for him.
5. Detroit Tigers
WHY? The baseball world probably had to high expectations for the Detroit Tigers last year, people expected them to sort of be what the Orioles were, a young team with some already solidified pieces making it past .500 on the road to a playoff berth a few years later. You can see why people would think that, the team finished 77-85 in 2021, and added Javier Baez, Eduardo Rodriguez, and Austin Meadows in the offseason. Yet what actually happened was a 66-96 finish. Those three were disappointing on the field, and Meadows and Rodriguez took time off from baseball for personal reasons. Tarik Skubal and Casey Mize both got hurt, Akil Baddoo had a big sophomore slump, and Spencer Torkelson didn’t hit. Pretty much everything that could go wrong, did go wrong. Now that might make you optimistic for 2023, it can’t all go bad again, can it? And maybe not, but it’ll take a lot of work to bounce back, and maybe 2021 was the real fluke season. Baez, Meadows, and Rodriguez will need to play much better, Baddoo will need to bounce back as well, and the young guys like Matt Manning, Riley Greene, Kerry Carpenter, and Spencer Torkelson will need to have linear growth. Guys in the bullpen will need to step up as well. Skubal should be back in the rotation at some point, but there’s no timetable for Mize.
ONE PREDICTION/TAKE. Spencer Torkelson will break out this year, he’s too good not to. Foolish Baseball agrees with me too which makes this argument stronger. Firstly, I should note Torkelson gets help from the Tigers moving in the deep outfield walls of Comerica park. Last year Torkelson made good swing decisions (75th percentile in chase rate), and he hit the ball hard. He was 78th percentile in average exit velocity as well as max exit velocity, and above average in barrels and hard hit rate. If Torkelson can work on making more contact then he’s primed for a breakout.
A.L WEST
1. Houston Astros
WHY? *Paul Heyman voice* The reigning, defending, undisputed MLB champions of the wooooooorld, the HOUUUUSTON ASSSSSSSTROOOOOS! Alright maybe that’s a little dramatic but the Astros did win the World Series after finishing the regular season with a 106-56 record, the best in the AL. Hopefully, they can also put the 2017 scandal fully in the rearview mirror now. The Astros are running back most of the same roster as their team last year, but there is one notable absence, Justin Verlander is now a New York Met. It definitely hurts, but it doesn’t cripple this team, they’ll still have a very good pitching staff led by Framber Valdez, Christian Javier, and Lance McCullers Jr. They also have Hunter Brown, the 68th ranked prospect according to MLB.com who has been compared heavily to Justin Verlander. The bullpen is also the same great unit as last year. As for the lineup, they’ll open the season without both Jose Altuve and Michael Brantly which hurts them early in the season, but as a whole unit this lineup could be better then last year with the addition of Jose Abreu who replaced Yuli Gurriel at first base. They also have prospect Korey Lee to provide more offense at catcher if needed, and I believe David Hensley will impress in Altuve’s absence.
ONE PREDICTION/TAKE. This is a bold one considering what Aaron Judge did last year, but I think Yordan Alverez can lead the MLB in home runs. Last year he finished fifth in the MLB in home runs with 37, and he did that playing 20 fewer games than anyone above him on that list. If he plays those 20-25 more games you think he can maybe reach Kyle Schwarber who was second with 46. Still, that’s a good number off of Judge’s 62. The reason I think he’s got a chance in 2023 is because of year-to-year improvements from the already very impressive young slugger who’s only going into his age 26 seasons. Judge will need to regress, but if anyone is going to surpass him, my bet is it will be Alverez who already lights up statcast and baseball savant and isn’t done improving.
2. Seattle Mariners
WHY? The young and exciting Mariners still aren’t quite at the level of the Astros yet, but they’re not going to make it easy for the team from Texas. They lost some pieces this offseason like Mitch Haniger, and traded away Jesse Winker, but they brought in Kolten Wong, Teoscar Hernandez, and AJ Pollock. Their rotation is really exciting and features Luis Castillo, Logan Gilbert, Robbie Ray, George Kirby, and Marco Gonzales. Their bullpen is very similar to last year’s and is one of the best in the MLB. Last year the ‘pen was top ten in ERA, top three in FIP, and top five in WAR. The lineup is led by a second year Julio Rodriguez who has already announced himself as one of the best players in the MLB. The lineup has the potential to be really deep and also features Ty France, Eugenio Suarez, Cal Raleigh, and JP Crawford. This team is probably another big bat away, but they have a good mix of veterans and young guys and replaced their losses well, adding a better second baseman and bringing in more depth, this team can look to take a small step forward this year.
ONE PREDICTION/TAKE. Jarred Kelenic needs to break out this year, time isn’t running out on his career by any means, but patience could be running thin. It’s important to remember this upcoming season will only be his age 23 season though. He has the potential to be a good big league hitter, he just hasn’t put it all together yet, but I think this is the year it happens. This spring he had a 1.211 OPS with 4 home runs in 49 plate appearances, you should take spring stats with a grain of salt, and obviously even if he breaks out he won’t be a 1.XXX hitter on the year, still, this is an encouraging sign. He spent the winter working on his craft and made some “significant swing adjustments” according to Mariners hitting coach Josh DeHart. He worked on his bat path and will hopefully be able to catch up to velocity now. If he’s able to show improved decision making at the plate as well that will also go a long way. Kelenic has easy power and if his work this offseason comes to fruition he can be a big contributor to the Mariners like we thought he would be.
3. Texas Rangers
WHY? It was definitely a hard decision for me to choose between the Rangers and the Angels for third place in the AL West. I think the two teams are pretty similar and stack up well against each other. I ended up going with the Rangers, and really it’s mostly just a gut feeling. The Rangers as an organization are hungry. Of course, every team is hungry but the Rangers have been doing everything possible to get back to winning baseball, and I’m not sure they are a winning team, but they’re definitely getting past the 75-win mark and making it close to .500, and there’s a world where they get past that mark. The team brought in World Series winning, future hall of fame manager, Bruce Bochy this offseason to guide the team, something that can’t be overlooked in my opinion. Not only did they bring in Bochy though, but they added the best pitcher in baseball when healthy, Jacob DeGrom, as well as, Nathan Eovaldi, and Andrew Heany who reinvented himself last year with the Dodgers, who join Martin Perez and Jon Gray to form a formidable rotation. The bullpen isn’t amazing by any means, but I like it more than the Angels’ pen. The lineup also has star power in the form of Corey Seager and Marcus Semien, and they’re joined by Adolis Garcia, Nathaniel Lowe, Josh Jung, and Mitch Garver who is looking to bounce back. Defensively they also have Cather Jonah Heim who in a regular role last year joined the 98th percentile of pitch framers. Overall this team still needs work, their lineup isn’t very deep, and the bullpen isn’t that great. Baseball is very much a team sport, but their stars can take them to third in the division.
ONE PREDICTION/TAKE. Corey Seager seems primed for a big offensive season. I can see it happen, and foolish baseball was talking about it on a recent episode of the “Wake N Jake” podcast, and said he wouldn’t be surprised if Seager finished top five in MVP voting this year, so I’ll make that my prediction for the Rangers. With the shift going away Seager will have the right side of the field open to him again and is looking to take advantage of it. Last year his batting average on balls in play was super low compared to his career averages, and this year it should be more in line with his career numbers. Seager also lit up statcast last year, so you’ve got to think he’s looking good for a big season. Most defensive stats don’t like him but statcast also had him in the 86th percentile of outs above average, if he can continue to improve there that’ll be huge. Seager’s big year could be one of the reasons this team stays ahead of the Angels as he tries his best to offset their monsters by putting up a season worthy of a top-five MVP vote.
4. Los Angeles Angels
WHY? It’s weird to think a team with the two best players in the sport might only be the fourth best team in their division, but that’s baseball and the Angels for you. This team could end up third and be fighting for a playoff spot into September, but I just don’t see it. The team is injury prone, and I know that’s kind of unfair to say, especially when I’m not really talking about it for other teams, but it’s true. Still, this team has Trout and Ohtani, Anthony Rendon hasn’t been healthy in a while but if he is he’s probably still pretty good, they also have Taylor Ward, Hunter Renfroe, and Brandon Drury. Logan O’Hoppe is an exciting first year catcher and Jared Walsh is a bounce back candidate. As I said when I was talking about the Rangers, the bullpen isn’t really good. I think Matt Moore can have another good year and Ryan Tepera and Aaron Loup can probably do better than they did last year, but as a unit, I can’t say much more. The rotation could be pretty good though, about the same potential as the Rangers I would say. Ohtani is an ace on the mound, Patrick Sandoval is good and if you don’t believe me look at what he did in the World Baseball Classic, Reid Detmers and Jose Suarez could break out this year, and Tyler Anderson figured it out last year. Maybe you think this team is better than the Rangers, and if you do I wouldn’t argue, but for me, I just can’t bring myself to put them in third. Maybe it’s because they’ve disappointed me in the past so I’m making them prove it, but for me, the Angels are now a fourth-place team.
ONE PREDICTION/TAKE. Remember when I said Anthony Rendon is probably still pretty good? Well, I think we should expect him to prove it on the field this year. He might not be the player he used to be, but he can still be a really good third baseman. The last time Rendon played a full season was in 2019, that’s kind of a long time now. That year though Rendon had a 155 wRC+, and in the first year of his Angels contract, the shortened 2020 season, he had a 152 wRC+. Both those years he also had good percentile rankings on baseball savant. Rendon has been injured a lot since, but he’s healthy going into 2023 and while we might not see wRC+’s in the 150’s anymore I think he’ll be safely in the 130’s this year. Rendon’s a good player, he just needs to stay healthy, and if he does there’s a better chance the Angels do move past the Rangers
5. Oakland Athletics
WHY? This A’s team is just not good. They’re just bad. The ownership is a joke. Buuuuut they have some exciting young players, so let’s talk about them. Kyle Muller, Ken Waldichuk, and JP Sears are all starters entering their first year and should give A’s fans something to smile about as they think of the future. Shintaro Fujinami and Drew Rucinski will be interesting experiments. James Kaprielian and Paul Blackburn are the two relative veterans of the staff. That’s seven possible starters and there’s a decent combination in there, but when five of the pieces are unknown it’s an uneasy feeling. As for the bullpen Trevor May is the best arm out there and could get traded to a contender if he has a good first half. Dany Jimenez is the most exciting arm out there, but most of the guys are in their first or second year and just trying to establish themselves. They could be better than you expect though, and Sam Moll is a name you should maybe remember, with a fastball spin rate in the 98th percentile. The biggest issue with this team is the lineup. Filled with journeymen and rookies alike there’s not much hope for this group of guys. Tony Kemp has shown he can be a nice little player in the past, and Romón Laureano is still there, but the team’s best hitter is Seth Brown and it really isn’t close. Brown’s a good player, that’s not a slight to him, but when there isn’t anyone else, it’s not a good lineup. A’s fans, just hope for good seasons from Esteury Ruiz and Shea Langeliers.
ONE PREDICTION/TAKE. Something fun can happen with this team even if they’re absolutely terrible, and that’s watching Esteury Ruiz lead the MLB in stolen bases. A mix of Ruiz’s base stealing ability, his recent practice in the minors, his on-base ability, and teams maybe not wanting their superstars to go so often to try and avoid injuries even after the rule changes could be the perfect storm for Ruiz to lead the MLB in steals. In the minors last year Ruiz got on base over 40% of the time, and he stole 85 bases. I don’t think Ruiz will get close to 85 this year, but it’s easy to see he has the ability to get a lot. His on base percentage also probably won’t be that high, it could be, but I doubt it, .400 is elite. Even if it’s much lower I still don’t think it’ll limit Ruiz from leading the league in steals, he’s that type of talent.
N.L EAST
1. New York Mets
WHY? The Mets had a crazy offseason, between gaining and losing Carlos Correa, signing reigning AL Cy Young winner Justin Verlander, Japanese star Kodai Senga, and resigning Brandon Nimmo, they were busy. The Mets were really good last year, but folded the division to the Braves at the end of the season and got eliminated in the Wild Card round by the San Deigo Padres which prompted this spending streak. Yes, DeGrom, Chris Bassitt, and Taijuan Walker left Queens as well as some bullpen arms, but this group of pitchers might be even better. In addition to Verlander, Senga, and Max Scherzer, Carlos Carrasco is still with the team and they also signed Jose Quintana off of a nice year. David Peterson is also there and will get an opportunity at the start of the year due to Quintana being injured. Edwin Diaz is out for the year unfortunately, but the bullpen is still good and now has Brooks Raley and David Robertson, with rookie Bryce Montas de Oca a possibility when he’s healthy. The lineup is elite and runs back the same group led by Francisco Lindor, Pete Alonso, Jeff McNeil, and Nimmo with Omar Narvaez as the primary catcher this year after James McCann’s disappointing stint with the team. This lineup has the potential to be the deepest lineup in baseball, where every at-bat is a dangerous one. This Met’s team is elite, and after the offseason, they had as well as the Phillies and Braves, it’s their division to lose even if they bottled it last year.
ONE PREDICTION/TAKE. Brett Baty will start the season in AAA, but he’s probably ready for the MLB. Eduardo Escobar will start the season as the third baseman but eventually, Baty’s production in AAA will make the Mets call him up and become the everyday third baseman. Escobar can become a player who moves around a little to stay in the lineup or comes off the bench. Francisco Alverez is in a similar boat, his bat is too good to keep in AAA all season. Alverez could become part of a DH platoon or maybe even takeover catcher. Either way, and no matter when these guys are called up, they will help extend the Mets lineup and be part of the difference this year.
2. Atlanta Braves
WHY? The Braves lost some guys this offseason, the biggest piece is obviously Dansby Swanson, the elite defensive shortstop hit well last season too and he leaves a hole on the roster that hasn’t really been filled. Kenley Jansen and Robbie Grossman also leave town which lessens the roster a little. They brought in Sean Murphy in a trade though, and even if it cost them William Contreras, it makes the squad better. Joe Jiminez, Lucas Luetge, and Nick Anderson were brought into a bullpen that still has A.J. Minter, Collin McHugh, Raisel Iglesias, and other good arms. The rotation is led by Max Fried, Spencer Strider, and Kyle Wright. Mike Soroka should also make his long awaited return this season. When it comes to the lineup, even though there’s a bit of a hole at short, it’s still an elite group of guys. Ronald Acuna Jr. should return or take a big step toward his pre-ACL tear self, Ozzie Albies also looks to return strong from an injury plagues season, Matt Olson looks to benefit from the shift disappearing, Austin Riley and Michael Harris are both still growing, and Vaughn Grissom will fill that shortstop hole when the organization believes the time is right from him to be called back up. losing Swanson as well as having rotation injuries as the season starts and the Mets gaining a better rotation is what makes the division look like this to me, but the Braves are still an extremely good and dangerous team who won’t care about the division if they end 2023 the same way they ended 2021.
ONE PREDICTION/TAKE. Spring stats don’t mean much. That’s not always true though, if a player has a monster spring to the level that Matt Olson did it could be a good bet they’re in for a really good season. It seems often that when a player has a really good season you can trace it all the way back to the spring. Matt Olson is probably the best player this spring and I think he could be an amazing player this regular season. My prediction is Olson will benefit from the shift leaving and his batting average could raise by around 20 points at least, and he’ll surpass 40 home runs for the first time this year. It’s hard to be the best player on the Braves with all of the other talent, but Olson is going to be up in the top three I believe.
3. Philadelphia Phillies
WHY? This Phillies team really seems like it’s better than third place, and I wouldn’t be surprised if they finish second or even if they finish first if something unforeseen occurs. This division is just so good though, so the Phillies end up being third but still an amazing team. The Phillies made it to the World Series as a major underdog, and they lost Noah Syndergaard and Jean Segura, but the incoming pieces definitely outweigh the losses. Trea Turner signed an 11 year $300 million deal with the team this offseason which brings another star and lots of value to the city of brotherly love. Rhys Hoskins is out for the year with a torn ACL, and Bryce Harper will be out for the first part of the year as he recovers from Tommy John. Kyle Schwarber and JT Realmuto are healthy and ready for the season, Nick Castellanos should bounce back this year, and the young guys should be improving as well. Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler still head up the rotation, Taijuan Walker joins them after signing with the team, and Ranger Suarez and Bailey Falter round it out, but top prospect Andrew Painter might take that last spot at some point in the year. Their bullpen also has good arms, but it’s not to the level of the top two teams in the division. This team can improve in some areas but they’re a very good team and have the potential to achieve what they nearly did last year, a World Series win.
ONE PREDICTION/TAKE. In my opinion, Alec Bohm can take a bit of a jump this year. He didn’t exactly have a bad season last year, he had a 98 wRC+, he had 13 home runs, and a .280 batting average, but his lack of walks held him to a .315 OPS and he only slugged .398. Not bad, but not good, around average. He had a really good baseball savant page though. Bohm was 98th percentile in expected batting average, showing he can improve a little bit in average. He also hits the ball hard pretty often, 67th percentile in hard hit rate and 73rd in average exit velocity, and his xwOBA is 69th percentile. His slugging can also be expected to improve next year. He needs to work on taking more walks, and his defense still limits him, but if he can improve to a 110 wRC+ player or better, which I think he can this year, he’s even more valuable to this team. If he can improve his walk rate, then Bohm can become a truly special player.
4. Miami Marlins
WHY? Here comes a Miami Marlins team that I think is solidly in fourth, but maybe not tooooooo far off of the top three, and they could make things challenging for one, if not all three, of those teams. Realistically though, this team is a sub .500 squad or around .500 at best in my opinion. The team is built a little weird, with a second baseman who’s more of a first baseman playing second in Luis Arraez, a second baseman playing third in Jean Segura, a third baseman playing shortstop in Joey Wendle, and a second baseman playing center in Jazz Chisholm. Maybe this sounds a bit harsh, Wendle has done pretty ok at short in the past, and Chisholm is young and athletic enough to make the move to center. These four will be joined in the lineup by Jorge Soler and Avisail Garcia who will both be looking to bounce back after disappointing first seasons in Miami. Jacob Stallings, Garrett Cooper, and Bryan De La Cruz who could split time with Jesus Sanchez. Veteran champion Yuli Gurriel is also on the bench. In terms of pitching the Marlins have the reigning NL Cy Young winner Sandy Alcantara, who is joined by Jesus Luzardo, Edward Cabrera, the veteran Johnny Cueto, and bounce back candidate Trevor Rogers. The bullpen has some good arms, but overall isn’t anything special. This team is filled with played that don’t always play to their full potential which makes it a little difficult to predict just how bad or good they’ll be this year, but it would take a minor miracle for them to finish third, and even a worst case scenario keeps them above fifth.
ONE PREDICTION/TAKE. Jazz Chisholm is a big name in the baseball world already, but some people see him as overrated, which then leads to people underrating his ability. After this season though there will be no mistaking Chisholm as anything other than a young star. Last year Chisholm only played 60 games due to injury, but he was on pace for a 30/30 season. He had 14 home runs, 12 steals, a .254/.325/.535 slash good for a 139 wRC+. Over a full season, I think he can reach that 30/30 mark. If he doesn’t I think it’ll be more because of his adjustment to center field and learning the position than anything else.
5. Washington Nationals
WHY? What a difference a few years make. Entering the fourth season after winning the 2019 World Series the Nationals are terrible, and my pick to be the worst team in the entire MLB. The pitching is utterly terrible, Patrick Corbin is the opening day starter which says enough, Trevor Williams is in the rotation and although he was a nice piece for the Mets, he was much more effective coming out of the bullpen. It’s unknown what Stephan Strasberg can contribute to the team as he’s injured and has only made eight starts over the past three seasons. The two young arms who look to start the season in the rotation, Josiah Gray and MacKenzie Gore, look to establish themselves in the big leagues. Gray has had a rough first couple of years in the show but he’s still young, while Gore has a stretch of good outings and bad outings for the Padres last year. The bullpen isn’t very inspiring but there are arms out there that did well last year, and they could easily be the best thing about this team. The lineup has young pieces like Keibert Ruiz, CJ Abrams, and Luis Garica as well as reclamation projects like Jeimer Candelario and Dominic Smith. This team just doesn't inspire any confidence in me, especially with that starting staff, this is kind of a prove it year for Gray and Williams, and the likely favorite for the fifth spot, Chad Kuhl, makes my feelings even worse (sorry Chad). There are likely to be good signs in the development of some players, but I just can’t get over the starting pitching, and even if there is development with the young bats, the lineup overall just doesn’t seem like it can be any good.
ONE PREDICTION/TAKE. The most likely bright spot on this team is Keibert Ruiz. Lots of people have predicted him to break out and I’m jumping on that bandwagon. Ruiz doesn’t strike out, and as a result, he puts the ball in play often. Now he will have more room to pull the ball into right while batting lefty. Ruiz’s average should raise a good amount from .251 as he was in the 91st percentile of expected batting average last year. Batting average is certainly an overrated stat, but the higher your average is, the higher your on base percentage is. Ruiz also has the potential to be a home run hitter as he mashed homers at times during his minor league career. There’s room to improve behind the plate and with his walk rate, but at the very least Ruiz should emerge as a pretty good offensive catcher in 2023.
N.L CENTRAL
1. St. Louis Cardinals
WHY? The Central isn’t very strong, but the Cardinals are the best bet to win the division again. The lineup is really strong, reigning NL MVP and MVP finalist, Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado, lead the way and they’re joined by bats like Lars Nootbaar, Brendan Donovan, top prospect Jordan Walker and newcomer and the replacement for the retiring Yadier Molina, Willson Contreras. Nolan Gorman doesn’t have prospect status anymore but is still a young talent and will most likely get lots of opportunities this year as well as prospect Alec Burleson. This lineup should put up plenty of runs, and they should also be pretty good defensively especially when you consider Tommy Edman and Dyland Carlson. The pitching is where issues arise for me. Adam Wainwright is 41 and not the same guy anymore, Steven Matz, Jack Flaherty, Jordan Montgomery, and Miles Mikolas make up the remaining spots and they’ve all had good moments, but have also all had some big downs. The group could be good enough, but most likely not everyone will be on their A game this season. If they all are then this is actually a pretty good rotation. The bullpen has some really great arms, and they could carry a lot of the load pitching wise if the starters can just get them the ball. Ryan Helsley and Giovanny Gallegos are the big names out there. Overall this team has the chance to be big time players, but they also might be one of the weaker playoff teams.
ONE PREDICTION/TAKE. Tyler O’Neil will bounce back this season with 25 home run, 25 stolen base year. O’Neil missed a good amount of time with Injury, and overall had a bit of a disappointing season putting up only a 101 wRC+. There are some signs that show O’Neil is due to bounce back though. First, he still hit the ball hard. Secondly, he reduced his strikeout rate while walking more. And third, his expected stats had him as a better player than his results showed, his xwOBA and wOBA were 24 points apart which is one of the bigger gaps in baseball. He might not get back to his 144 wRC+ 2021, but maybe a 120ish wRC+ with 25 homers and 25 steals is possible.
2. Chicago Cubs
WHY? These Cubs seem like they could be sneaky (maybe?) and if the Brewers falter, the Cubs can jump them. Now, at the beginning of the season I do like the Brewers better I think, but for some reason, I just think baseball things will happen and the Cubs will finish second. As I said they have a sneaky roster. The pitching staff has Marcus Stroman, Jameson Taillon, Justin Steele, Drew Smyly, Hayden Wesneski, and at some point Kyle Hendricks. That’s not a super exciting group of guys but they could get the job done. The bullpen could be pretty good. Michael Fulmer most likely gets most of the save opportunities for them. This team will certainly be good defensively and should be pretty good at getting runs as well. Ian Happ, Dansby Swanson, Nico Hoerner, and Seiya Suzuki are the main faces. Trey Mancini and Cody Bellinger are bounceback candidates, and Edwin Rios should get regular playing time and a chance to prove himself. I’m not sure how they’ll get to second in the division, maybe this group just does it, maybe they make some moves, or maybe the Brewers trade some guys away (foreshadowing). I do believe though in my gut that it’s very possible for this team to finish here, and with a record around .500
ONE PREDICTION/TAKE. Many people expect Cody Bellinger to bounce back this year, but I think a different former dodger could have a big impact on the team, that being Edwin Rios. When Rios played for the Dodgers he normally played very well. In his big league career has 20 home runs in 112 MLB games and has been working this spring to hit for even more power. I think with the right shot Rios could at least double his career home run total this year with the Cubs.
3. Milwaukee Brewers
WHY? Why do I hate the Brewers? Well, really I don’t at all, but I just don’t have a good feeling that the season will end the way I want it to. The team seems to be in this weird mode where they want to be competitive, but they’re also trading away good pieces. Looking at the roster as it’s constructed now, Corbin Burnes, Brandon Woodruff, and Freddy Peralta are one of the best, if not the best, big three in baseball. In the bullpen, Devin Williams is now the closer, and he’s elite, but about half of the arms in the bullpen just don’t have good MLB track records, and it’s really hard to win without a good bullpen. Willy Adames, Luis Urias, Rowdy Tellez, and William Contreras are all pretty good hitters, and Garrett Mitchell and Brice Turang should be able to contribute. Jesse Winker should be able to bounce back and it’ll be interesting to see what Luke Voit can do. As for Christian Yelich, I kind of think the train has left the station on him returning or even getting that close to his MVP level. It’s not a bad group of guys, but with the bullpen, the way it is, and lack of a real big bat (yes I know Rowdy hit 35 home runs but his wRC+ is only 110, he’s a little too much home run or nothing in my opinion) limits this team a bit and I just don’t think the vibes are that great in the clubhouse with Corbin Burnes, the best player on the team, unhappy with the organization. Those reasons are probably why my gut is telling me to put them third. They’re not a bad team, but not good enough for the second spot this year, and could be hanging around .500 in my opinion.
ONE PREDICTION/TAKE. Corbin Burnes is a professional, and he’s going to try his very best to leave his disappointment outside the clubhouse, but it’s possible that that is impossible. If the Brewers are playing mediocre baseball around the deadline and Burnes is unhappy then it might be beneficial for everyone if the Brewers start looking for a trade. Burnes value would be as high as it would get as he still has team control until 2025. Trading someone under team control isn’t a new idea for the Brewers as they did it with Josh Hader last year. Maybe it’s different as Burnes is a starter, but trading him could bring in MLB pieces and big name prospects. My hot take is Burnes will be traded at the deadline, but I think at the very least the Brewers will listen to offers. If the Dodgers offer Noah Syndergaard and a few big prospects I wouldn’t be surprised to see Burnes in LA.
4. Pittsburgh Pirates
WHY? This Pirates team might be better than you think. They might not be like last year’s Orioles, but I think they take a good step forward as their young guys continue to develop and are joined by some veterans. In the rotation, Mitch Keller looks to break out after reinventing himself at the end of last season, and I could’ve put it as my prediction/take, but I’ll just say here, I wouldn’t be surprised if he has a really nice year. He’s joined in the rotation by veterans Rich Hill and Vince Velasquez, as well as young arms Roansy Contreras, Johan Oviedo, and fourth-year player JT Brubaker. The bullpen is highlighted by David Bednar, but beside him, the ‘pen isn’t much. The lineup is highlighted by Bryan Reynolds, O’Neil Cruz (who I could’ve predicted to go 20/20 or even 30/30), a returning Andrew McCutchen, and Ke’Bryan Hayes in addition to some other veterans and young guys. This team isn’t amazing by any means, but the added veterans combined with the younger players continuing to develop could push this team into the 70-75 win range, and they’ll only get better as the season goes on and they get reinforcements in the form of prospects like Quinn Priester and Endy Rodriguez.
ONE PREDICTION/TAKE. I wanted to use this section to write about Mitch Keller’s breakout and O’Neil Cruz’s 30/30 chances, but instead of either of those, I’m going to use this section to predict Ke’Bryan will do something that hasn’t been done in over a decade… win a gold glove at third base instead of Nolan Arenado. Hayes and Arenado played almost as many innings as each other at third base last year (Arenado played 15.2 more innings there this year), and although the innings were nearly the same, Hayes blew Arenado out of the water in most defensive stats. Hayes had a 34 OAA to Arenado’s 15, a 26 RAA to an 11 RAA, a 44 DRS to a 19 DRS, you get the point. Arenado did better in UZR, but only by .2. Arenado’s nine consecutive wins was really the only reason he won again last year. It’s not like ‘Nado had a bad defensive year, he was elite, but Hayes was just more elite. Really this shouldn’t even have been a prediction as Hayes should’ve won a gold glove already, but he’s primed to have just as good if not a better season defensively, and Arenado isn’t old, but he’s not exactly getting younger. If the voters do what’s right, there could be a new king of the leather at third.
5. Cincinnati Reds
WHY? The Reds could have a bright future, and we will start to see that in 2023, but they’re a long way from competing. The Reds rotation has a very exciting top two in Nick Lodolo and the flame throwing Hunter Greene, both now in their second MLB season. Conner Overton and Graham Ashcraft are also two young members of the rotation and are joined by veteran Luke Weaver. The Reds will really just be hoping for healthy seasons and good development, especially for the top two. The bullpen features Edwin Diaz’s younger brother Alexis who will be the team’s closer. Lucas Sims and Tejay Antone are notable names in the bullpen, but they both start the season injured. Besides them, the less said about the bullpen the better. This season could be team legend and future hall of famer Joey Votto’s last hurrah, he will share the lineup with some good players like Tyler Stephenson, Wil Myers, and Jonathan India who’s looking to bounce back after a rough sophomore season. Besides those players though the lineup is mostly just guys fighting to keep their spots. Elly De La Cruz, the 10th best prospect in the MLB according to MLB.com, will most likely make his debut sometime this season and give Reds fans another reason to be excited for the future. Until then, the offense should be pretty boring.
ONE PREDICTION/TAKE. I believe the best story of this 2023 Reds team will be Nick Lodolo and Hunter Greene both breaking out to create a formidable 1-2 punch atop the rotation. Lodolo ended 2022 on a good note with a 2.48 ERA over his last six stars. Lodolo also had some good expected stats like a 3.49 xFIP. Lodolo strikes out a lot of batters, and baseball savant says both his fastball and curveball spin well. Lodolo was 75th percentile in expected batting average last year as well. He has the potential to improve on an already good 3.66 ERA, and I think he can do it this upcoming season. Greene didn’t have as good of a year as Lodolo last year, but there are still positive signs. His expected ERA and xFIP were much lower than his actual numbers, and his expected batting average was in the 71st percentile. His fastball is also an insane weapon that can give him an advantage. As these two enter their second season they have more knowledge and should be better than they were just a year ago. The Reds have done good stuff with pitching development in the past, and these two have the potential to be great and show us this year that they’re going to be a scary duo for years to come.
N.L West
1. Los Angeles Dodgers
WHY? Many people seem to think the Padres will take the division from the Dodgers, but I can’t see it. Maybe you think as constructed now the Padres are better, I’m not even sure I think that, but we all know as the season continues both these teams will make trades and try to gain every advantage over each other. The Dodgers have the better rotation and bullpen in my opinion and even if the Padres have the better bats, I don’t think it’ll make enough of a difference. In the Dodgers rotation is of course, Clayton Kershaw, as well as Julio Urias, Noah Syndergaard, and Tony Gonsolin. Some of their starting pitching prospects should get opportunities this year as well. The bullpen could be one of the best in baseball with Evan Phillies, Brusdar Graterol, Alex Vesia, and Yency Almonte leading the way. Offensively, Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, and Will Smith make up a three headed monster, JD Martinez is a nice bat, Trayce Thompson broke out last year, and Max Muncy looks to bounce back. Chris Taylor is still there, and James Outman and Miguel Vargas are rookies who look to be impact bats. It’s hard to bet against the Dodgers, and maybe I’m blinded by their past success, but they seem to me to be more well rounded and they’ve almost always won the division in recent history.
ONE PREDICTION/TAKE. I touched on it, but I think Miguel Vargas and James Outman will be big reasons they’re able to stay ahead of the Padres. Vargas is the 37th ranked prospect in the MLB according to MLB.com, and he had a .304/.404/.511 slash with 17 home runs in 113 AAA games last year. Vargas has a great eye and doesn’t strike out much. His ability to put the ball in play so well, take walks, while having 20-25 home run potential will be big for the team, and I think he’ll have an easy transition to the MLB. Outman isn’t as highly ranked of a prospect and is older, but he also destroyed minor league pitching last year, having an OPS close to 1.000 across 125 games in AA and AAA. Outman actually hit slightly better in AAA too, and impressed in the majors last year, albeit only in 16 plate appearances. Outman is a speedster who gets on base well, meaning he could be a basepath menace for the dodgers this year. He’s also a good outfielder, and I expect him to carve out a regular role for himself in center or left. The Dodgers lost some of their guys this offseason and due to injury, but these two should soften the blow and keep the Dodgers in first.
2. San Diego Padres
WHY? The Padres might just have the best lineup in baseball once Fernando Tatis Jr. returns from his suspension. Xander Bogaerts was added to a lineup that already includes the aforementioned Tatis, Manny Machado, and Juan Soto. That’s like the Kevin Durant Warriors in baseball, or about as close to it as you can get. But baseball has more parts to the team than basketball, and unlike basketball, it takes more than four great players to win. I’m not saying the Padres are bad, they’re amazing, but in other ways than the lineup, the dodgers are better. I’ll finish up the lineup though. Jake Cronenworth and Ha-Seong Kim are both really good players, Matt Carpenter looks to do more of what he did last year but it’ll be difficult, Nelson Cruz will look to bounce back, and Trent Grishman has offensive potential in addition to amazing defense in center. Moving on to the rotation, Joe Musgrove, Yu Darvish, and Blake Snell are definitely a good top three, but there can be a lot of fluctuation in production in the latter two. Michael Wacha will slot in the fourth slot and although he did well last year he’s due for regression. The fifth spot is really up in the air, but it looks like it won’t be a traditional starter, and if it is it’ll be an older pitcher who hasn’t had much recent success. This bullpen has some really good arms like Josh Hader, Nabil Crismat, Tim Hill, and Luis Garica, but Hader is coming off of a bad year, and while he should bounce back it’s not a guarantee. I think he will, but I also think it doesn’t matter that much, the Padres are far ahead of third, and while they showed in a playoff series they can win, this is a regular season prediction, and I think the Dodgers find more wins over 162.
ONE PREDICTION/TAKE. As I said, I do think Josh Hader can turn it around this year, he’s too good not to put up better numbers. Hader got unlucky last year, and his opponent batting average was .270 even though he was in the 90th percentile for expected batting average for pitchers. His ERA of 5.22 was way higher than his xERA of 3.51. His xFIP was 2.94 compared to his actual FIP of 3.45. Hader has years of success, and it doesn't make sense that an ERA in the fives would be his new normal. Hader will bounce back, and I predict he’ll lead the MLB in saves as a dominant closer on a really good team.
3. San Francisco Giants
WHY? The Giants had one of the weirdest off-seasons in recent memory. First, fans thought the team signed Aaron Judge, but seven minutes after Jon Heyman’s original tweet he announced it was a mistake. Then fans thought they signed Carlos Correa, but the press conference got canceled and the deal fell through over concerns about his ankle. It wasn’t all bad though, the team signed Michael Conforto and Mitch Haniger to bolster the offense, and Sean Manaea and Ross Stripling to the rotation. In the rotation, Stripling and Manaea are joined by Alex Cobb, ace Logan Webb, and either Alex Wood or Anthony Desclafani. The Giants bullpen wasn’t that good last year but has potential this year. Camilo Doval should be even more dominant in his second full season, the Rogers twins should be pretty good, both Scott Alexander and John Brebbia were good last year, and Luke Jackson will join the ‘pen at some point this year. The lineup is lacking star talent to take them to the next level, but there are good pieces. Joc Pederson, Michael Conforto, Mitch Haniger are the biggest bats, but Thairo Estrada, JD Davis, Austin Slater, and David Villar should be good as well. Mike Yastremzki, LaMonte Wade Jr, and Brandon Crawford are all bounce back candidates, and Joey Bart looks to break out. Wilmer Flores and Roberto Perez are good veteran options that provide different skill sets, and Blake Sabol looks to impress after a great camp. At some point, this year top prospect Kyle Harrison who’s 18th ranked by MLB.com, will make his debut for the team and make the pitching staff even better. Casey Schmitt is another prospect who should make his debut, he has gold glove defense at third and swung the bat well this spring. The team isn’t overall impressive, but they have a lot of good pieces and should be .500 or a little above, and if anything happens to one of the top teams they should be the ones to make the last playoff spot.
ONE PREDICTION/TAKE. Michael Conforto missed all of last season, and when he last played in 2021 he wasn’t anything special. Conforto is fully healthy from his shoulder surgery now though and had a pretty good spring with four home runs. It’s hard to say for sure what Conforto will be like, but after a season away from the game he should be ready to hit the ground running. Prior to 2021 Conforto was a really good hitter and had a wRC+ above 120 every year from 2017 to 2020 except for 2018 when he had a 119. I fully expect Conforto to bounce back to his 2018/19 form and hit close to 30 home runs, an on base percentage around .350, and a slugging in the mid to high .400s.
4. Arizona Diamondbacks
WHY? The Diamondbacks are a good team but they’re not yet at the level of the teams above them in the division, they’re not far from the Giants though, and they’re getting better. The Rotation is led by Zac Gallen who is one of the most underrated pitchers in all of baseball. He’s joined by Merrill Kelly and prospect Ryne Nelson. Joe Mantiply is the best arm in the ‘pen, and there are some other good arms like Andrew Chafin, but the most exciting arm is Drey Jameson who is a top 10 prospect in the organization who could join the rotation at some point in the year. The lineup is a good mix of young players and veterans. Corbin Carroll, a consensus top three prospect will get everyday playing time and should be really good. The rest of the lineup should be pretty decent with Ketel Marte, Jake McCarthy, Christian Walker, Josh Rojas, Lourdes Gurriel Jr, Alek Thomas, Gabriel Moreno, Kyle Lewis, and Evan Longoria all on the roster. This group could make a push towards .500, but it depends on how well the young guys play.
ONE PREDICTION/TAKE. As I said, Zac Gallen is one of the most underrated pitchers in all of baseball. Gallen had a 2.54 ERA last year, which was already one of the best in the MLB. If you remove Gallen’s one bad month last year, his ERA lowers to 2.09. Gallen will continue to work with magical pitching coach Brent Strom, and with more consistency and some helpful regression from the top few ERA pitchers in the MLB last year, I believe Gallen can top the list for 2023.
5. Colorado Rockies
WHY? The Rockies are another example of a bad owner. The team did pretty much nothing of note this offseason except for bringing in Jurickson Profar, and the team lacks a direction even though they’re one of the worst rosters in the MLB. Profar, Kris Bryant, Charlie Blackmon, and CJ Cron are the names to note in the lineup, and Ezequiel Tovar is a good prospect who I think will do well for the team. In the bullpen there’s a lot of yuck to put it plainly, but Brad Hand had good results last year, you always have to root for Daniel Bard, and Dinelson Lamet has some good previous success even if it’s been a few years. Its hard to pitch in Coors, but this rotation is also just not good. German Marquez and maybe Kyle Freeland can be exceptions, but Jose Urena, Austin Gomber, and Ryan Feltner don’t fill me with hope. Overall this team just isn’t good and they won’t be anywhere near .500 no matter how much wishful thinking you have.
ONE PREDICTION/TAKE. One bright spot on this team could be Ezequiel Tovar who is the 25th ranked prospect overall according to MLB.com. Tovar had a .319/.387/.540 slash last year, mostly in AA. The jump from AA to the MLB is a big one, and I don’t think it’ll be problem free, but Tovar has the potential to become a good regular for the Rockies and show that he has the ability to be more than that. A big part of his value is his glove, and MLB.com believes he has gold glove potential which I think makes a gold glove finalist spot at shortstop a fairly likely outcome for the season.
PLAYOFFS:
AL:
Wild Card round: Minnesota Twins (6) vs Cleveland Guardians (3)
I think the Twins edge out the Rays for the last playoff spot. The Twins will have a really good year and fighting between the Orioles and Rays lets them swoop in and take the final playoff spot in the AL in my opinion. I think the Guardians are the better team though and will win the series.
Winners: Guardians
Wild Card round: Seattle Mariners (5) vs Toronto Blue Jays (4)
This is a rematch from last season, but both teams look a little different. This time around the Blue Jays have a more balanced team on paper, and they’ll also take more hits away with a much improved outfield defense. I think that gives them more of an advantage this time around, and Manoah and Guasman are the type of one-two punch that can take over a series like this, but so are Castilo and Kirby. It’ll be close, and probably go to three games, but I think the Blue Jays get revenge for last year and move on.
Winners: Blue Jays
ALDS: Cleveland Guardians (3) vs New York Yankees (2)
Another rematch is the Guardians and Yankees. The Guardians pushed the Yankees to their limits last year and will be looking to complete the upset this time. I think the Yankees are the better team, but this Guardians squad gives me vibes similar to the early 2010s Giants. Predictions are sometimes just gut feelings, and I think the Guardians will move on. It makes sense to me though as the Guardians pitching staff silenced the Yankees to an extent and the staff could potentially be better this year, and the lineup is better too.
Winners: Guardians
ALDS: Toronto Blue Jays (4) vs Astros (1)
Despite losing Justin Verlander and having some injuries to start the year, the Astros are the best team in the AL in the regular season. The offense is loaded and the pitching is great. The Blue Jays offense is also loaded and their pitching isn’t too shabby either. We saw last year how wild card teams shocked teams that got byes in the DS series. I have a feeling the Jays are the type of team that can ride a wave of momentum and beat the Astros. It’s so hard to predict something like that, but I think it can happen. No team has repeated as World Series champions since the 2000 Yankees, and I don’t think the Astros break that streak.
Winners: Blue Jays
ALCS: Toronto Blue Jays (4) vs Cleveland Guardians (3)
Most people definitely wouldn’t expect this, but it’s what’s happening in my predictions. Both these teams are good, but I can only give the win to one, and I have to give it to the Blue Jays. Simply put, the Jays are going to hit more than the Guardians. If the Blue Jays run a four-man rotation I think their arms can compete with the ones the Guardians throw out there. The Guardians have the better bullpen and that could quiet some of the offense, but I think the lineup is too deep to hold them all down. You could also say the Guardians could take the advantage due to the Blue Jays bullpen, but you have to assume they’ll add some pieces as the season goes on, and if he’s not starting Ricky Tiedemann will be a great arm in the ‘pen. My gut’s telling me it’s right, I have the Blue Jays advancing to the World Series.
Winners: Blue Jays
NL:
Wild Card round: Philadelphia Phillies (6) vs St. Louis Cardinals (3)
Last year I really thought the Cardinals would be the Phillies, but this year I got to go with the reigning NL Champions. Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler should take over this series and their offense will surely give them enough run support to advance.
Winners: Philadelphia Phillies
Wild Card round: Atlanta Braves (5) vs San Diego Padres (4)
By the time the playoffs roll around the Padres should be rolling on all cylinders, and as we saw last year they’re a really good playoff team. The Braves can’t be counted out though either, they won the World Series over the Astros in 2021. Both lineups are stacked, and I went back and forth on this, I had both teams advancing at different points in time when I was doing my outline. I have to go with the Braves though due to their superior pitching.
NLDS: Philadelphia Phillies (6) vs Los Angeles Dodgers (2)
I have the Dodgers as the second seed in the NL, which means the Mets were able to win the most games despite a stronger division. The Dodgers are still an amazing team though, but we all know that they just can’t seem to get it done in the playoffs, and I think that the Phillies might be too much for them. The Phillies have an amazing lineup, and I think it’s better than the Dodgers, and the pitching can be just as good. That Phillies lineup puts pressure on the Dodgers pitching staff, and pressure on Dave Roberts to make the right move which is something he hasn’t always been able to do in the playoffs. A few Dodgers mistakes and the Phillies win.
Winners: Phillies
NLDS: San Deigo Padres (4) vs New York Mets (1)
We all know how this went last year, but the Mets got cold at the worst time possible right before the season ended. I don’t think that’s likely to happen this year. The Padres might have more star power, but the Mets have a deeper lineup and much better pitching. I don’t see the same thing that happened last year happening this year. The Padres might just be a bit to top heavy, and the Mets have great stars and good depth.
Winners: New York Mets
NLCS: Philadelphia Phillies (6) vs New York Mets (1)
I have an all NL East NLCS with the Phillies and Mets. The Phillies are obviously a good team to make it to this point, but as I explained in the division predictions the Mets are simply just better. Anything can happen in the Playoffs but I think it’ll be more of the same from the regular season. The Phillies will put up a good fight, but the Mets will advance to the World Series
Winners: New York Mets
World Series: Toronto Blue Jays (4) vs New York Mets (1)
The World Series, what everyone (mostly everyone) is playing for. Winning it all is the culmination of the long season, and it means all your hard work paid off. Both These teams are really good, they both have nice lineups and good pitchers. It was a hard decision for me but winning the 2023 World Series is the….. Blue Jays! maybe… it’s what I'm predicting anyway. The Mets have the better team on paper sure, but I don’t think they’ll really be challenged much by the teams they’ve played to this point, whereas this Blue Jays team will develop a warriors mentality by this point. Is that a dumb reason to claim they’ll win the World Series? Probably, but predicting this is a crapshoot, it doesn’t happen like it looks like it should on paper. The Blue Jays are a good team, and they have a roster that very well could win the whole thing, they just need to put it together which I think they will. They have a good mix of young studs and veterans, sluggers and defenders, and the potential for a really amazing playoff rotation and a good enough bullpen. The Mets are lacking their closer which you could say comes back to bite them, and maybe their older pitching isn’t firing on all cylinders by this point. I’m not exactly sure what the differentiator will be, or even if the Blue Jays will win the World Series. It’s all fancy guesswork after all. But looking it all over and taking it all in I would say it’s the Blue Jays that’ll win it all.
Winners: Blue Jays
Awards predictions:
AL MVP: Shohei Ohtani
it took an extremely special season from Aaron Judge where he broke the single-season American League home run and had to put up over 10 WAR to win the MVP over Ohtani. Ohtani is a top pitcher in the game, and he also puts up wRC+’s over 140. It takes great seasons like Judge’s to take the MVP away from Ohtani, and I don’t think there will be another season like that this year.
NL MVP: Manny Machado
The smart pick is probably Juan Soto, but I couldn’t decide who to pick before I recorded a podcast with my friend Omar as guests on Binging with Bablers. I decided to be a contrarian and take Manny Machado. Machado’s batting average on balls in play will drop significantly, as last year’s BABIP is too high to replicate. However he’s the leader of this Padres team and in his offensive prime and we’ve seen what he can do so I’ll stick with the pick.
AL Cy Young: Jacob DeGrom
When DeGrom is healthy he’s the best pitcher in baseball. It’s hard to go with anyone else here. If DeGrom can’t stay healthy in Texas though it’s probably time to start choosing other people.
NL Cy Young: Zac Gallen
This one is a little out there maybe, but Gallen is very good and Brent Strom can continue to turn him into even more of a monster. Gallen just needs to stay consistent for him to have a good chance at the award. He doesn’t allow many runs of course and also can pitch a lot of innings in a year with a K/9 rate over nine.
AL Rookie of the Year: Masataka Yoshida
Masataka Yoshida had an amazing World Baseball Classic for team Japan and showed he can hit against MLB pitching even if the sample size was very small. He never looked overmatched. Yoshida has been one of the best hitters in the NPB since his debut, and last year he hit 28 home runs with a .335/.447/.561 slugging. It’s doubtful Yoshida will put up numbers thaaaaaat good, and there might be a period of adjustment either at the beginning of the year or when pitchers start to figure him out. Still though, he should be a great hitter for the Red Sox and a bright spot on their team, putting up around 20 home runs and a OPS over 800 which should be good enough to win him the Rookie of the Year. He has a lot of good competition in Anthony Volpe, Gunner Henderson, Grayson Rodriguez, and maybe a few more guys, but Yoshida has more experience at high levels of baseball, and I think he can pull it off.
NL Rookie of the Year: Corbin Carroll
Lots of people will probably say Jordan Walker, and while he could hit very well I also wouldn’t be that surprised if he was in for a rude awakening since he hasn’t played above AA. I think Walker definitely has the talent, and I don’t even think he’ll have that bad of a season, but I still have to go with Carroll. Carroll is a five-tool player, he’s going to get on base at a high level for the Diamondbacks, and when he’s on base he’s going to steal a ton of bags with his elite speed. He also can hit home runs, he’s not exactly known for his power but his slugging has been improving over the years, and he could get around 20 home runs. His defense is really good in the outfield too, and he has a good arm too. The Diamondbacks obviously believe in him as they signed him to an eight year, $111 million contract before the season.
AL Comeback Player of the Year: Chris Sale
As I’ve said, Chris Sale will have an amazing year and remind everyone who he is after missing a good amount of time due to injuries the past few years. The other biggest candidate is Anthony Rendon, but I just have more trust in Sale to return to his former self.
NL Comeback Player of the Year: Ronald Acuna Jr.
Acuna already came back from his ACL injury last year, but he wasn’t the same player. This year though, another year removed from the injury, Acuna should return to elite status. He’s had more time to recover and his speed, while still very good last year, could become elite again, and he’ll just be more prepared for the 2023 season than he was for the 2022 season, as he was probably more focused on his recovery than baseball activities.
AL Manager of the Year: Rocco Baldelli
If the Twins can make the playoffs this year after finishing under .500 last year he should probably get the award. Manager of the Year is a regular season award, so even though I think the Blue Jays will win the World Series, that’s why I don’t have John Schneider taking the award home.
NL Manager of the Year: David Ross or Torey Lovullo
My thinking here is if the Cubs get to .500 then Ross will win, and if the Diamondbacks get to .500 then Lovullo will win for the second time. If they both get to .500 I think it leans toward Lovullo with his team being more up-and-coming. If neither get to .500 then I’m not sure what happens really. Bob Melvin or Buck Showalter maybe?
World Series MVP: Brandon Belt
You never know who steps up, and this is a complete shot in the dark, but maybe Belt’s experience and track record of big postseason moments will make him a hero in his first year away from the Giants organization. It’d be pretty cool anyway.
If you made it to this point, sincerely, thank you. I know some of these predictions might seem a little out there, and I didn’t always say what made the most sense, but that’s part of predicting, sometimes you need to be a little out there. Other times though I probably played it too safe. Either way, we’ll only find out how I did when the World Series wraps up.
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